Tag Archives: Manu Ginobili

We’re about ten games into the NBA season so far.  It’s late enough to start perceiving some trends, and still early enough to make predictions.

If you haven’t been paying attention, here’s what’s been hoopening:  Miami, after all the hype, is 6-4.  The Hornets, who had no hype, are 8-1.  The Lakers, who still aren’t fully healthy, are 8-2.  The Clippers, who are mostly healthy, are, well, the Clippers.  The Knicks have shown signs of life, but then allowed Kevin Love to put up a 30-30 game.  No joke.  At least 30 points and at least 30 boards.  (A question for the NBA’s official statistician: does it only count as a 20-20 game, because it happened against the Knicks?)  And, after improving to 2-0 against the Heat this year, Paul Pierce tweeted an absolutely classic tweet.

We’re now deep enough into the season that it’s an appropriate time to start talking about predictions.  I begin my analysis by looking at individual players; specifically, stars.  For a team to make the playoffs, it obviously must have balance, depth, and role players.  No question.  But, in general, it also must have at least 1 star.

I don’t see more than 1 or 2 NBA teams making the playoffs that do not have an All-Star on their roster.  The only team to do it last year was Milwaukee, and they had a few guys who were borderline All-Stars.  This is no coincidence; when attempting to pick the playoff teams, I start by trying to pick the All-Stars.  Then I add 4 borderline All-Stars per conference, and that tells me which of the teams are worthy of going through the hoopservations state-of-the-art (ahem) data analyzer to predict playoff teams.

As a starting point, here were last year’s All-Star rosters:

EAST:

LeBron James

Kevin Garnett

Dwyane Wade

Allen Iverson (injured)

David Lee

Dwight Howard

Al Horford

Chris Bosh

Paul Pierce

Gerald Wallace

Joe Johnson

Rajon Rondo

Derrick Rose

WEST

Carmelo Anthony

Tim Duncan

Kobe Bryant (injured)

Jason Kidd

Steve Nash

Amar’e Stoudemire

Pau Gasol

Kevin Durant

Dirk Nowitzki

Zach Randolph

Chris Paul (injured)

Chauncey Billups

Brandon Roy (injured)

Chris Kaman

Deron Williams

Right off the bat, we know there will be a few changes, because Iverson isn’t in the league anymore (he was barely in the league when he made the team last year, but his name won’t be on the ballot this year so the chances of a repeat are low), David Lee went to the Western Conference, and Amar’e went to the East.

Here’s what I see for the East:

1. LeBron James

2. Dwyane Wade

3. Amar’e Stoudemire

4. Dwight Howard

5. Danny Granger

6. Paul Pierce

7. Gerald Wallace

8. Joe Johnson

9. Rajon Rondo

10. Derrick Rose

11. Joakim Noah

12. Andrew Bogut

Borderline:

Brook Lopez

Al Horford

Andre Iguodala

Anderson Varejao

And here’s what I see for the West:

1.  Carmelo Anthony

2.  Kobe Bryant

3. Steve Nash

4.  Blake Griffin

5.  Pau Gasol

6.  Kevin Durant

7.  Dirk Nowitzki

8.  Manu Ginobili

9.  Chris Paul

10.  Brandon Roy

11.  Deron Williams

12.  Russell Westbrook

Borderline

Stephen Curry

Zach Randolph

Tony Parker

David West

So, the teams we can eliminate from playoff consideration because they simply don’t have enough talent are: Detroit, Toronto, Washington, Sacramento, Minnesota, and Houston.  That probably doesn’t count as going out on a limb, so let me push the envelope a bit… at least 4 of those teams will win fewer than 30 games.

Soon, I’ll analyze each of the other teams and generate playoff predictions.

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I’ve spoken to a number of people recently who tell me that they don’t enjoy watching the NBA anymore.  One person was telling me that the game isn’t played the way the Knicks of the early 70’s played it, which is the way it is supposed to be played.  A few people were telling me that it isn’t played the way the Celtics and Lakers of the 80’s played it, a few complained that it isn’t as good as it was when Reggie, Patrick, Michael and Hakeem were battling it out in the 90’s, and a few just sounded grouchy.  The point, though, is that a number of people aren’t feelin’ it the way I’m feelin’ it.

[AUTHOR’S DISCLAIMER:  The crew of people that I interact with on a daily basis is, I know, not necessarily reflective of the overall population.  An illustration of a typical conversation for me to have with a friend is a conversation that I had yesterday.  I said something about the hoops that was played on Monday night.  My friend responded by saying that he was watching WWE wrestling (Monday Night Raw) during the game I was talking about.  This led to a back-and-forth, which culminated in him arguing that The Undertaker would make a great power forward — kind of like The Birdman — and me conceding that the NBA’s ratings might improve if The Undertaker signed with an NBA team.  Yup, these are my friends.  But the point remains… a bunch of people are unhappy with the NBA.]

I wasn’t around to watch the Knicks of the early 70’s, so I can’t respond directly to the assertion that they played the game better than the teams play today.  But I watched plenty of hoops starting in the mid-80’s, and I know a thing or two about the history of the game.  At least enough to address the feeling that the game is getting worse.

For starters, I agree that something has gotten lost with the addition of more teams.  ‘Twas a time when there was no such thing as a Tuesday in February when a few games were being played between two lousy teams.  Now there are so many teams that there are bound to be some games that are no fun to watch. (Even if all the other teams in the NBA got better, the Knicks would still be the Knicks, guaranteeing at least 82 meaningless, uninteresting games every year).

But there’s a reason why the league expanded; at bottom, it’s a business.  When people like what it’s producing, it’s going to produce more.  Sure, it might get to a point where it overexpands (I would argue that it passed that point 2 or 3 teams ago), but you can’t expect the league to sit still if it thinks there are markets to be tapped into profitably.

I also agree that the best teams do not seem to be as good.  I doubt we’ll ever see a team like the ’86 Celtics, with 3 Hall-of-Famers in the frontcourt, 1 in the backcourt, AND BILL WALTON ON THE BENCH, going against the Lakers, with arguably the best PG ever, the league’s all-time leading scorer, AND JAMES WORTHY FILLING THE LANE.  When you add teams, you diminish the likelihood of any team accumulating that much talent.

But let’s not look at the past with rose-colored glasses.  When those Celtics and Lakers teams were dominating the league, the teams on the bottom were terrible.  Anyone remember the Jazz before Stockton and Malone?  The Kings in the sky blue uniforms?  The Nets before they drafted Derrick Coleman?  The Rockets before Olajuwon?  You don’t?  Neither do I.  That’s my point.  And I made that point without even mentioning the pre-Ewing Knicks — the team with Pat Cummings and Rory Sparrow in the starting lineup.

I’ll give one other point to the teams of yesteryear; they typically had guys who fit into our notions of the five different positions.  Kareem was a C, Magic was a PG, Byron was a SG, Worthy and Rambis were forwards.  That’s what a basketball team was supposed to look like.  And there was a harmony to it.  Today, many teams have a few guys who are “hybrids,” which sounds good in theory, but sometimes leads to something awful-looking.  Like the Golden State Warriors.  And nobody wants that.

But, again, let’s not look at the past with rose-colored glasses.  It’s true that the Lakers and Celtics of the ’80’s, or the Knicks of the early ’70’s, started 5 guys who each played one of the “5 positions.”  But, it’s also true that they started SGs who were 6’4” or smaller.  Good luck trying to pull that off in today’s game (unless your 6’4” SG happens to be named Dwyane Wade).

There’s much more to say on this topic, but I won’t try to cover too much in one posting.  The last thing I’ll say is that anyone who is down on today’s game should watch the Suns-Spurs series.  Watch Nash, Duncan, Manu, and Grant Hill, and then talk to me about whether today’s players aren’t playing the game the right way.

Which reminds me… I have a game to go watch.

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