Tag Archive: Dwyane Wade


Putting a Bow on the LeBron Discussion

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, Comparing Players / Teams, NBA by Tweener — 10 Comments
06/16/2011

Alas, my friends.  The time has come to put a bow on Season 2 of hoopservations.com .  Hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have.

In closing, I think it’s appropriate to wrap up the LeBron conversation.  Assuming we have a basketball season to talk about in October, people’s opinions and perspectives on what we just WITNESSED are likely to change.  Now that the discussion is fresh, let’s do some year-end hoopserving about it.

My five-part rant generated a few comments about King James, disagreeing with my conclusions.  I’ll take them in turn:

COMMENT:  Did Magic play with Kareem and Worthy? Didn’t Clyde Drexler and some others team up with Hakeem to win? Also didn’t Malone and Payton team up with Shaq and Kobe to win a championship? Shaq played with Kobe (arguably both could be considered in the top 5 to ever play the game). Jordan and Pippen were nominated in the 50 best players ever and Jordan is arguably the best to ever play. For all the hate that everyone has against Lebron for choosing who he works with, it sums up to jealousy. Last night Van Gundy stated this and he made a great point.

RESPONSE:  We’ll start with Magic.  I’ve already blogged about this.  He won his first championship when Kareem was injured.  By the time he won the last one, Kareem was washed up.  Magic had won two before Worthy even joined the team.  In any event, it’s not like he spent 7 years failing to win with his own team and then ran to join a team with Kareem and Worthy.

Re Drexler, it’s true that he didn’t win until he joined Hakeem.  It’s also true that nobody talks about him as a top-15 player.  If you want to agree not to rank LeBron ahead of Drexler, I’ll agree that the situations are comparable.  The problem is that LeBron gets much more credit than Drexler, without credentials to warrant it.

Re Malone and Payton, yes they both joined the Lakers when they were old, after having spent their careers failing to reach the promised land.  It was lame of them.  And it didn’t work.  They still failed to win.  And nobody puts them in the top 15.  (Simmons ranked Malone #18, and Payton #40.  I’m assuming that Simmons would have to acknowledge that Wade and Dirk have both moved ahead of Malone since he published his book.)

Re Shaq and Kobe, now you’re just being silly.  The year before Shaq joined the Lakers was 95-96.  (Shaq’s stats here.)  Kobe wasn’t even in the league that year.  (Kobe’s stats here.)  So Shaq leaving Orlando for LA is not at all comparable to LeBron leaving Cleveland for Miami: one guy quit on his team to join a team that already had an established superstar, and one guy did not.

Re Jordan and Pippen… ah, I’m not gonna go there.  Already done that.

Re “it sums up to jealousy,” now you’re not even making sense.  I’m fat, slow, and can’t jump.  As a result, I’m jealous of all the guys in the NBA.  Even Brian Cardinal.  Hell, I’m jealous of some dude named Tim whom I met at the park, because he was able to complete a reverse lay-up without twisting his ankle.  There’s a reason why LeBron is the source of my anger, and it has nothing to do with jealousy.

COMMENT:  Lebron should be applauded and emulated. Lets look at some of the positives he has done verse others in our beloved sport – he actively sought out Warren Buffet. He took the power of making his professional life more fulfilling. Don’t we all do this when we search for a new job or career?

RESPONSE:  I don’t follow the Warren Buffet thing.  Regarding the idea of “we all do this,” it’s true that we all try to make our lives as fulfilling as possible.  It’s also true that we aren’t all in the discussion for being one of the top 15 basketball players of all time.  Thus, if I go to work for an established organization, it’s probably because I want to make a few more bucks or have a bit more job security — not because I’ve taken the easy way out on the quest for greatness.

COMMENT:  He has two kids with the same woman and has never been accused of negative or illegal activities. So far he has embraced being a role model. He plays team first basketball – what he loves passing – the horror. He loves playing defense – don’t follow that habit.

RESPONSE:  I have one kid with the same woman, and have embraced being a role model.  I’m still not in the conversation for top 15 basketball players of all time.  Bruce Bowen loved playing defense.  He isn’t, either.

COMMENT:  I hope Lebron wins, dances, and then Miami throws a party even more out there then their intro party. When this happens you will see me in the middle of it. Don’t hate because our game is captivating and beautiful to watch.

RESPONSE:  I hope you enjoyed the party.

COMMENT:  That is definitely the most credit you’ve given LeBron that I’ve read. Almost, for a second, sounded as if you liked him- but then I kept reading. Although I always enjoy your posts, I’m going to disagree with something you wrote (surprise)- I do not think Lebrons decision to go to Miami was cowardly- at all. He did what anyone would do to get ahead in his job, further his career and achieve the ultimate goal. He has taken ridiculous amounts of abuse from every city around and has held his head high through it all. He is a leader and has not tried to steal the spotlight at all. He has his eyes on the prize as does the rest of the Miami Heat players.  If he was wearing a USA jersey for the Olympics the country would be cheering for him.

RESPONSE: When LeBron decides to play for Team USA, it’s not like he’s looking at 30 different options and choosing the one that represents the easiest path to a title.  Team USA happens to represent the easiest path to a gold medal, but it’s not like LeBron chooses to be on Team USA instead of other teams.  He’s on Team USA because he’s an American citizen.

Now, before closing out the season, let’s summarize why LeBron is so disliked:

* He came into the league with more hype than any other player.  This isn’t necessarily his fault, but he certainly added fuel to the fire.  He tattooed “Chosen 1″ on his body.  He wore the number 23.  His nickname is King James.  His ad campaign says “We Are All Witnesses.” Clearly, he was trying to be something other than just an ordinary superstar.  (For some perspective, remember that other dudes near his level have nicknames like “Durantula,” and ad campaigns about falling down 7 times and getting up 8, or something like that.)  With so much hype and such an oversized personality, things were destined to come crashing down eventually if he failed to win a title.

*  For years, he fought sports gravity.  The general rule in sports is that people root for their own teams.  They sometimes become fans of guys on other teams, but rarely in mass numbers.  For the first few years of his career, LeBron was a phenom, and people generally rooted for him.  Then, about the time he stopped getting the benefit of the doubt as a result of being a phenom, his free agency was approaching. Fans of multiple teams thought they were getting him, so, instead of rooting against him like they ordinarily would, they rooted for him, almost as if he was one of their own players.  This, too, was destined to lead to a backlash, for reasons that are not necessarily LeBron’s fault.

*  ”The Decision,” and the following celebration, were both obnoxious.  If these were the only reasons people had to dislike LeBron, people would have gotten over them eventually.  But they weren’t the only reasons.

*  Even if he hadn’t done the stupid tv show or celebration, the decision (lower-case letters) to go to Miami was infuriating.  At the end of the day, ignoring everything else, he had to decide where to continue his career, and he made the unprecedented choice of trying to pursue greatness while taking a backseat to a superstar who had already established himself.  Millions of people (including me) see it as an act of cowardice, and don’t want him to be rewarded for it.

All of that said, it’s true that he hasn’t committed a crime and that, by all accounts, he’s a good family man off-the-court.  So, nothing he has done is irreversible.  Reversing the negative feelings about him, though, will be very difficult, because now he’s stuck on Wade’s team.  Now that people have woken up to what he did, there might be a ceiling on the amount of credit he’ll get, even if he does everything right and the team wins.  It will be hard for him to reverse things very quickly because the team would be excellent without him.  Decisions, though, have consequences, and that is the consequence of The Decision.

As far as human dramas go, it’s really quite fascinating.  I know that I’ll be watching next year, to see how he responds (assuming there’s a season!!).

Until then, enjoy the off-season, hoopservers!!!

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The Anger Subsides

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, Comparing Players / Teams, NBA, Talking About Hoops by Tweener — 1 Comment
06/12/2011

The anger that I devoted a five-part series to has been subsiding recently.  In fact, it’s almost completely gone.

That’s because a funny thing happened on the way to the King’s Corronation… people finally started to realize that King James didn’t deserve the crown.  And once that happened, I had nothing left to be angry about.

Basketball fans everywhere are talking about LeBron these days.  The conversation is all over the internets and the sports radio airwaves.  I’ve been following it intensely, and, while I generally agree with most of what I’m hearing, I think people are missing the point.  Have no fear, Tweener is here to set the record straight…

First, some context.  When people talk about the best basketball players of all time, there is a ceiling on how high a guy who never led his team to a title can go.  Because of that, no serious basketball fan will rank Barkley, Malone, Stockton, or Ewing among the top-10 ever.  To crack the top 10, or even the top 15, a player needs a ring.

The reason why a player needs a ring to crack the Upper Level is that people – correctly, I believe – recognize that the ability to lead a team to a championship is something that very few players have.  Those who have put that feather in their cap have obtained the most impressive credential for a basketball great to acquire.

The mere notion that a Guy Who Might Be King could run to a team that already had a superstar with that feather in his cap, and somehow validate himself by “winning a championship” on that guy’s team sent me into a tizzy.  To even think that it was possible for a guy to “validate” himself in such a cowardly fashion is to undermine the very essence of basketball greatness.  As I watched the Heat march through the early rounds of the playoffs, and heard multiple people say that LeBron was inching closer to “validating” himself as one of the all-time greats, my head spun.

As I blogged in December of 2009, long before hoopservations.com took over the internet (ahem), one of the reasons why I felt that LeBron was overrated was that Bill Simmons – a widely-respected basketball maven – actually undertook the effort to rank the top players of all time, and put LeBron – who had only played 6 seasons at the time – at #20.  The implication seemed to be that if this amazingly-talented youngster simply kept doing what he was doing, he was well on his way to landing in the top 10, or even top 5, or perhaps even on The Throne.  Why didn’t LeBron have to lead a team to a championship in order to deserve that kind of credit?  I had no idea.

More recently, hearing knowledgeable people talk as if a Heat championship would put LeBron in the Upper Level — without considering the possibility that Wade deserved to be ranked ahead of him — tormented my basketball-loving soul.

Well, that’s water under the bridge now.  Since the last time I wrote, the lights got brighter.  The pressure got more intense.  Dirk stepped up for the Mavs, and has been brilliant.  Wade stepped up for the Heat, and has demonstrated himself to be the team’s leader.  And, most importantly, PEOPLE HAVE TAKEN NOTICE.  The Guy Who Might Be King has games where he just blends into the scenery, and the basketball universe is responding as if the wool has been pulled over its eyes for the past 8 years.

Even Bill Simmons, he of the top-20 ranking for LeBron a few years ago, now acknowledges that the Heat is Wade’s team.  Checka, checka, check out what Simmons is saying now:

If you watched Games 3 and 4 in person, you knew Miami belonged to Dwyane Wade. That was the hardest thing to shake. We made so much fuss about LeBron these past two years and he’s not even the most important dude on his own team.

Amen.  I’m glad you’ve seen the light, Bill.  Wish I could take some credit for showing you what you had been missing, but only 8 people read my blog, so I highly doubt that I had anything to do with it.

Of course, I shouldn’t get ahead of myself.  I don’t know what’s gonna happen later.  For all I know, LeBron will put up 35-15-12 over each of the next two games, and the Heat will win the title.  But I know this… In any given came, LeBron might do something that neither Michael nor Magic nor Larry nor Wilt could do.  He’s simply that talented.  It’s also true that, in any given game, LeBron might do something that neither Michael nor Magic nor Larry nor Wilt would do, like disappear completely when his team needs him most.  He’s simply that inconsistent.  When it comes to the ability to rise to the moment when the pressure is highest — sometimes called “killer instinct,” sometimes called “greatness,” and sometimes called “leadership” — LeBron simply can’t compare to the guys in the Upper Level.

As this is probably my last posting of the 2011 season, I’ll close by saying… Go Mavs. Well, sort of.  I don’t really care anymore.  No matter what happens in the rest of the series, I’ll head into the off-season knowing that my sport is going to be ok.  (Unless, of course, LeBron puts up two big games, and people forget how often he needed to be carried by Wade.  If that happens, the rants will re-commence.)

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The Anger Is HEATing Up – Part 3 (The MJ Comparison)

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, Comparing Eras, Comparing Players / Teams, NBA, Talking About Hoops by Tweener — 1 Comment
05/26/2011

The rant continues to develop.  In the meantime, as promised yesterday, here is a comparison of LeBron’s performance this year with Michael Jordan’s accomplishments.  For those who don’t feel like reading a bunch of stats, here’s a quick summary of the comparison:  There’s no comparison.  None whatsoever.

Those who want to see the numbers are encouraged to continue reading.

Where to begin?  Well, the notion, endorsed by LeBron defenders, that LeBron’s accomplishments are comparable to Jordan’s is based on the idea that Jordan “had Pippen and Grant.”  Pippen and Grant, Wade and Bosh.  6 of one, half-dozen of another.  Or so the thinking goes.

Preposterous.

Before either of them ever played with LeBron, Bosh and Wade each had a long list of accomplishments.  To name a few:

Wade:  Led Marquette to the Final Four (2003), won NBA Finals MVP (2006), NBA Scoring Champion (2009), 6 time NBA All-Star (2005-2010), 2-time All-NBA First Team (2009, 2010), 2-time All-NBA Second Team (2005, 2006), All-NBA Third-Team (2007), 3-time All-Defense Second Team (2005, 2009, 2010).  (Again, thank you wikipedia for the info.)

Bosh: 5-time NBA All-Star (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011), All-NBA Second Team (2007).  (Info here.)

In contrast, when Jordan first got Pippen as a teammate, Pippen’s big accomplishment was that he was a consensus NAIA All-American at Central Arkansas. Horace Grant’s big accomplishment when he first became Jordan’s teammate was that he played at Clemson University.

Measuring the accomplishments of Wade / Bosh before they teamed with LeBron against the accomplishments of Pippen / Grant before they teamed with Jordan isn’t completely fair, because Pippen and Grant joined Jordan’s team as rookies.  So, let’s take a broader view.  Horace Grant’s highest scoring average for any season during his career is 15.1 ppg.  (Here are his stats.)  He averaged 10 rebounds or more twice.  Bosh has already averaged more than 15.1 ppg 7 times, and more than 10 rebounds per game 3 times.  (Here.)  Wade has averaged more points per game than 15.1 every single year of his nine-year career.  (Here.)

Scottie Pippen averaged more than 20 ppg four different times.  (Here are his stats.)  He averaged more than 8 rebounds per game twice.  He averaged more than 6 assists three times.  Bosh has already averaged more than 20 ppg five times, and more than 8 rebounds seven times.  Wade has already averaged more than 20 ppg eight times, and more than 6 assists six times.

And, yes, I know all about Pippen’s defensive prowess.  Wade’s pretty good at D, too, don’t ya’ think?

Enough about the accomplishments of the teammates.  Let’s look at MJ and LeBron themselves.  There are so many different ways to demonstrate that MJ’s accomplishments dwarf LeBron’s that it’s hard to know which numbers to look at.  I’ll do it this way: look at MJ’s numbers during his first championship run, and compare them to LeBron’s run this year.

During his first championship run, the lowest point total Jordan had in a single playoff game was 22.  I kid you not.  Check it here.  He had 25 or more 16 times.  As for assists, his lowest game was 5.  He had 7 or more 12 times.

Looking at LeBron’s Game Log from this year’s playoffs, we see that his lowest point total is 15.  He had fewer than 22 points – Jordan’s low, remember – 4 times.  He had 25 or more 7 times.  As for assists, his lowest game was 2.   He had 7 or more twice.

I could do this for hours, but, at this point, it’s just piling on.  Game, set, match.

Hopefully nobody’s going to say that LeBron is approaching Jordan’s greatness, or I’m going to have to pick this back up.

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The Anger is HEATing Up – Part 2 (More Numbers)

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, Comparing Eras, Comparing Players / Teams, NBA, Talking About Hoops by Tweener — 1 Comment
05/25/2011

The rant developing deep in my soul continues to take shape.  It now has some words, but no sentences yet.  Lots of numbers, though.  Lots and lots of numbers.

For starters, some numbers about the Miami Heat… The Heat were were well positioned to compete for a championship before LeBron signed.  Last year, they finished 47-35, good for 5th in the East, carried almost entirely by Dwyane Wade.  Their second-leading scorer was – I kid you not – Michael Beasley, at 14.8 ppg.  Their third-leading scorer was – I couldn’t make this up if I tried – Jermaine O’Neal, at 13.6 ppg.  (Complete stats here, in case you’re interested.)

Yes, Jermaine O’Neal.  The same Jermaine O’Neal, who, as the 5th guy in the Celtics starting 5, constituted their weakest link.  He was the third leading scorer on the Heat last year.  Yet, they were 47-35, because Dwyane Wade is Just That Damn Good.

The Heat team of last year, though, is not the team that LeBron joined.  No.  He joined a significantly better version.  See, before LeBron signed with the Heat, they had already signed Chris Bosh.  Bosh had just completed five straight seasons of averaging more than 22 ppg, and two straight seasons of averaging more than 10 rpg.  (Stats here.)

In other words, a team that was 47-35 had retained its superstar, Wade, and had upgraded from Michael Beasley to Chris Bosh – a legitimate star (I’ve knocked him before, but he’s probably one of the top 30 players in the game, and is, unquestionably, significantly better than Michael Beasley).  They were clearly on their way to a 50-win season.  That’s before LeBron came on board.

Generally, this point of a discussion about LeBron is about the time when LeBron defenders say something like “Well, all championship teams have multiple great players.  Magic had Kareem and Worthy, Bird had McHale and Dennis Johnson.  Michael had Scottie.  LeBron isn’t getting more help than those guys got.”

This is line of thinking is, um… what’s the word???? Oh, yeah… ASSININE.  That’s the one.

Let’s get specific.  We’ll start with Magic, and the notion that the help he got from Kareem and Worthy was the same as the help LeBron is getting from Wade and Bosh.  Kareem, whose greatness is undeniable, was injured during the 1979-80 Finals, and Magic, then a rookie, turned in one of the legendary performances in NBA history, going for 42 points, 15 rebounds, and 7 assists.  (Details here, in case you want them.)  I’m not saying that Magic carried the team that season, I’m just pointing out that one of his defining games came without Kareem.  By the time Magic won his fifth title in the ’87-88 season, the tall dude lumbering around the court in a jersey that said “Abdul-Jabbar” on the back averaged less than 15 points and played less than 29 minutes per game.  (Kareem’s stats here.)

As for Worthy, Magic had already won two titles before Worthy got drafted.  You’re familiar with the legendary North Carolina team that won the ’82 NCAA Championship with Jordan, Perkins, and Worthy, right?  Well, that was the season Magic won his second NBA title.  So don’t waste my time with the “Magic had Worthy” nonsense.

Now let’s talk about Bird.  Yes, he had McHale.  You know how many points and rebounds McHale averaged in 1980-81, the year of Bird’s first championship?  Guess.  What do you think, 15 and 8?  Lower.  12 and 6?  Lower.  10 and 4?  Yup.  (Check here, if you want details.)  On the ’83-’84 championship team, Bird averaged more than 5 points per game more than the next highest scorer on the team (Robert Parish), AND he had 182 assists more than the next best passer on the team (Dennis Johnson).  (Go look here, if you want.)

Translation, for those who aren’t interested in numbers: Bird carried a much larger share of the burden for the Celtics than LeBron carries for the Heat.  It’s not even close.

That brings us to Michael.  Actually, we’ll save that for tomorrow.  The contrast between what Michael did and what LeBron is doing is so stark that it deserves its own post.

For now, to close this portion of the statistical analysis, I simply note that, while it’s true that Magic and Larry had multiple great teammates, it’s also true that there were fewer teams back then, diluting the talent in the league.  The talent around Magic and Larry only seems comparable to the talent around LeBron if someone looks at them all in a vacuum.  But when one looks at the talent around those guys relative to the talent on the other best teams, it becomes clear that the Celtics and Lakers were not ready to compete for a title without Larry and Magic.

Back then, Raptors were an extinct species of dinosaur, not a mediocre team in Toronto.  Wolves, Grizzlies, and Bobcats were running around the jungle, but they weren’t diluting the talent pool in the NBA.  The Hornets, Magic, and Heat weren’t around yet, either.

In today’s game, where Dwayne Wade and a bunch of spare parts is good enough to win 47 games, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh together is a championship contender, and, with the right role players, possibly even one of the top favorites.  Without LeBron.

No more for now.  Tomorrow, MJ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Anger Is HEATing Up – Part 1

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, Comparing Players / Teams, NBA, Talking About Hoops by Tweener — 2 Comments
05/24/2011

It’s been a while since I wrote about LeBron.  About time to get back to some hoopserving about him.

If you’ve read my other postings about LeBron (and, if you haven’t, I encourage you to click the LeBron James tag and read them), you’ve seen me write that I don’t hate LeBron.  Rather, I have problems with the way he is judged, basically all tracing from the fact that I have felt, for a while, that his hype was always a few steps ahead of his accomplishments.

Slight addendum to that feeling: I hate him now.  Not “hate” the way that I hate criminals or dictators, but “hate” in the way that sports fans hate certain athletes.  In that context, this is the purest, most intense hatred I’ve ever felt.

I’m not sure exactly when or why the hatred became so pure and so intense, but it was undeniable this morning.  I was driving in my car, listening to Mike and Mike on the radio, as they debated whether it would “mean more to” Dirk or LeBron to win a championship this year.  Mike Greenberg was arguing that it would mean more to LeBron, because, while it would be a great accomplishment for Dirk, it would “validate” LeBron’s decision to go to Miami, and bolster his legacy enough that he could start making a case for being one of the top 10, or even top 5, players ever.  Some guest on the show was agreeing with him.

My head almost exploded.

I had to pull the car over, and roll down the window.  The game I love has been hijacked by this putz, and these knuckleheads who analyze it are buying the snake oil he’s selling.

Lost upon them, apparently, is the fact that LeBron hasn’t been all that great in the playoffs this year.  It’s like they entirely overlook the main criticism about LeBron’s move to Miami; HE TOOK THE EASY WAY OUT, surrounding himself with teammates who are perfectly capable of winning without him.  The very essence of the problem with what LeBron did is that he’s now in a position to win without being great, yet these “experts” were saying that a Miami win would validate his greatness.

This got me angry.  Furious, almost.  Like any testosterone-driven, red-meat-eating manly man, when I get angry, I… get on the internet to look at basketball statistics.  (What, that’s not what testosterone-driven men do?)  The stats got me even angrier.

There’s a rant developing deep in my soul, but, at the moment, it hasn’t yet developed into words.  For now, it’s just a bunch of numbers.

Let’s look at some of those numbers.  The Miami Heat have played, as I type this, 13 games in this year’s playoffs.  Let’s look at 3 categories: points, rebounds, and assists, and see how much leadership LeBron is providing this team…

Game 1 (vs Philly): He led them in rebounds, and tied for the lead in assists.  By the way, the opening two lines of ESPN’s summary, which is entitled “Dwyane Wade’s late heroics help Heat open playoffs with tight win” say “Chris Bosh and LeBron James watched from afar when Dwyane Wade controlled the final portions of games during the Miami Heat’s championship run in 2006.  They got a closer look Saturday, when Wade helped save Miami from a Game 1 collapse.”

Game 2 (vs Philly): He led them in points and assists.

Game 3 (vs Philly): He led them in rebounds.

Game 4 (vs Philly): He led them in points and assists

Game 5 (vs Philly):  The ESPN summary of the game says “Dwyane Wade leads Heat into Eastern Conference semifinals.”  LeBron was third – yes, third – on the team in points and rebounds, and led them in assists.

Game 6 (vs Boston): The ESPN summary of the game says “Dwyane Wade, James Jones help Heat stifle Celts, take Game 1.”  LeBron was third – yes, third – on the team in scoring, and tied for the lead in assists.

Game 7 (vs Boston): He led the team in points.

Game 8 (vs Boston):  He led the team in none of the three categories.  None.  As in, not a single one.  (A/K/A zero.  Zilch. Nada.)

Game 9 (vs Boston): He led the team in points and rebounds.

Game 10 (vs Boston):  He led the team in none of the three categories.  None.  Again.

Game 11 (vs Chicago):  He led the team in assists.  He was the third highest scorer.  Yes, the third.  Again.

Game 12 (vs Chicago):  He led the team in points, rebounds, and assists.

Game 13 (vs Chicago): The ESPN summary of the game says “Chris Bosh powers Heat to 2-1 series lead over Bulls.”  LeBron led the team in assists.

Let’s tally up those numbers.  In 13 games so far, LeBron has led the Heat in scoring 5 times.  He led the team in rebounding 4 times.  He led the team in assists (including two instances of being tied for the lead) 8 times.

Many, many, many more numbers to come over the next few days.  Hatred this pure and this intense is backed up by plenty of numbers.

 

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What’s The Best Model?

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, GM Consultant, NBA by Tweener — 5 Comments
04/17/2011

Here we are.  The 2011 Playoffs.

Of course, there are lots of interesting storylines to talk about as the playoffs begin.  What interests me the most is the clash of styles amongst the teams still standing.

To set the table for that discussion, I think it’s worthwhile to identify who I think the 20 best players in the league are (otherwise, discussions about which teams truly have “star” power get complicated, as it’s easy to call lots of players “stars” but much harder to identify the ones who truly are).  In no particular order, I think the top 20 players, divided into “superstars” and “stars” are:

SUPERSTARS

1.  Kobe

2.  Durant

3.  Rose

4.  LeBron

5.  Wade

6.  Howard

STARS

7.  Dirk

8.  Gasol

9.  Westbrook

10.  CP3

11.  Anthony

12.  Stoudemire

13.  Randolph (20 ppg, 12 rpg)

14.  Aldridge (22 ppg, 9 rpg)

15.  Rondo (11 assists, 2.5 spg)

16.  Ginobili (17 ppg, 5 apg, 4 rpg, 1.5 spg)

17.  Parker (18 ppg, 7 apg)

18.  Johnson (18 ppg, 5 apg, 4 rpg)

19.  Horford (15 ppg, 9 rpg, 1 bpg)

20.  Granger (21 ppg, 5 rpg)

We could probably debate a few of those guys (CP3, Anthony, and Stoudemire might deserve to be considered superstars, while Garnett, Pierce, Bosh, and Iguodala could be considered stars).  But, generally, it’s a pretty uncontroversial list of the 20 best players in the playoffs.  With that as background, the teams generally fall into a few groups:

NO STARS - Philly and Denver:  Both of these teams are athletic, exciting, and deep.  And neither has a chance to win more than one round, because they don’t have the necessary star-power.

ONE STAR - Dallas, Memphis, Portland, Boston, Indiana, New Orleans, Orlando and Chicago:  This is an interesting group. To me, the critical distinction among the teams in this group is that some of them have big guys who operate in the paint, playing alongside dynamic small guys.  Some do not.  The teams that do — Chicago, Memphis, Portland, and Indiana — are legitimate threats.  Dallas is better than it has been in years past because Tyson Chandler is an effective presence in the paint. But, Dirk, as great as he is, is not a traditional PF, and Kidd is no longer a dynamic PG.  New Orleans would be a threat, but for the crippling injury to David West.  Without him, there’s just not enough horsepower there.  Orlando, in my eyes, just doesn’t have the guards to go deep.  That leaves Boston and Chicago.  Before the Perkins trade, Boston had intimidating big guys and dynamic small guys.  Now they’ve lost the intimidation.  All is not lost, because, though they only have one of the top 20 players, it’s possible that they have four of the top 25.  They might be able to get by simply because they have so many guys who can win a game for them, but that’s less likely than it was before the trade.  Chicago is unique among this group, because it has a superstar guard playing alongside big guys who dominate the paint.

TWO STARS – Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles, Oklahoma City, Miami, and San Antonio:  The primary distinction among the teams in this group is that some have superstars and some do not.  Neither Atlanta nor San Antonio have superstars, but both have two stars playing with capable supporting casts (with all due respect to Tim Duncan, he is now a part of the supporting cast).  It’s rare for a team to win without a superstar, but Atlanta and San Antonio are threats — San Antonio specifically because it has the best backcourt tandem, and a very capable frontcourt.  New York is the wild card in this group, because, if Carmelo and Amar’e play like superstars, they might be good enough to make up for the glaring shortcoming on that roster; no big guys who intimidate anyone to play up front with those two.  Miami is the only team with two superstars, and also the only team that relies on Mario Chalmers and Joel Anthony for major minutes.  That leaves Oklahoma City and LA, both of whom have a superstar and a star.

In light of all of that, I’ll make this prediction: I expect Chicago, LA, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City to rise above the rest. Chicago and LA both have superstar guards playing alongside big men who dominate the paint.  San Antonio and Oklahoma City both have overpowering perimeter tandems playing alongside big men who, while not as good as the bigs on Chicago and LA, are effective down low.  Which of those four will emerge as champion?  Stay tuned.

 

 

 

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Just Sayin’

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, NBA by Tweener — Comments Off
01/28/2011

Right now, 45 games into their season, the Miami Heat are 31-14.

Last year, when LeBron had a supporting cast that was theoretically not even close to being as good as the “supporting cast” he has now, the Cavs, after 45 games, were 34-11. (Is it fair to call LeBron’s current teammates a “supporting cast,” given that one of them is arguably better than he is?)

Why is this?  Well, it’s complicated.  We’ll explore some of the reasons over the next few weeks.

For now, I’m just pointing it out.

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The End of “Upside”?

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, GM Consultant, NBA by Tweener — Comments Off
01/18/2011

As the speculation about a trade involving Carmelo Anthony continues to swirl (in case you happen to have missed it, click here or here for recent examples), one of the things that amazes me is the continued mention of Derrick Favors as a centerpiece of the deal.  Yes, he of the 6.5 ppg and 5 rpg.  I guess the theory is that he has tremendous “upside.”

Well, yeah… if by “upside” you mean the amount of miraculous improvement we’d have to see for the guy to become an impact player.

For years, I’ve been unable to understand how so many NBA GM’s get intrigued by false “upside” so regularly.  To be clear, when I’m talking about players who were highly valued because of their “upside,” I’m talking about guys who went to college and didn’t perform at a star’s level.  Sorry for being all lawyerly, but, when I say “perform at a star’s level” I mean that the guy either started on a Final Four team, or was named to at least one of (i) his all-conference team or (ii) the All-American team.  That’s a relatively simple way to separate the guys who distinguished themselves in college from the guys who didn’t; only the first group contains guys with real achievements.

For all the talk of “upside” that we hear around the NBA Draft and the trade deadline, I can’t think of a single star who represents an example of someone with no track record of success but lots of “upside” who turned that “upside” into consistent performance.  Literally, not one.

Think of the top 15 players in the league today.  We could argue about who’s in that group, but it’s generally safe to say that it looks something like this (in no particular order)

1. Kobe

2. LeBron

3. Wade

4. CP3

5. Deron Williams

6. Amar’e

7. Howard

8. Dirk

9. Derrick Rose

10. Carmelo

11.  Durant

12. Pierce

13. Ginobili

14. Westbrook

15. Pao Gasol

When testing my statement that nobody who went to college and failed to distinguish himself wound up becoming a star, the guys who never went to college do not weigh on the analysis.  (I guess some might say that it’s a copout for me to make an argument about how young players get analyzed without addressing the stars who didn’t play in college.  But I’m not arguing that untested young guys never amount to anything — I’m arguing that the guys who played in college but didn’t do much don’t deserve to be treated like valuable assets.)

Working from that list of 15, let’s see what the data tells us:

1. Kobe – No college.

2. LeBron – No college.

3. Wade – Carried Marquette to the Final Four

4. CP3 – First Team All-American as a sophomore at Wake Forest

5. Deron Williams – Led Illinois to the Finals

6. Amar’e – No college.

7. Howard – No college.

8. Dirk – No college.

9. Derrick Rose – Led Memphis to the Finals

10. Carmelo – Led Syracuse to a championship

11.  Durant – AP player of the year as a freshman at Texas

12. Pierce – First Team All-American as a junior at Kansas

13. Ginobili – No college.

14. Westbrook – Played on a UCLA team that went to the Final Four

15. Pao Gasol – No college.

In sum, each of the guys on this list who went to college did some BALLIN’ when he was there.  There isn’t a single guy on the list who went to college and failed to assert himself.

Against that backdrop, let’s return to Derrick Favors.  A “power forward,” he was only the second-leading rebounder on his Georgia Tech team during his only year there.  (And it’s not like he was part of a dominating front-court tag-team with the next Moses Malone — the guy had fewer rebounds than someone named Gani Lawal.  Then again, maybe it’s possible that Lawal has tremendous “upside,” too, and that this was actually the most talented big-man tandem in the history of college hoops.  Ahem.)  That Georgia Tech team, a #10 seed, lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

Some guys look at that track record and, because of something about Favors (his height?  his jumping ability? his carefully trimmed goatee?) see reason to get excited about his “upside.”  I look at Favors, and see a guy who hasn’t done much to get excited about.  (Though I must admit that his goatee is well-maintained.)

The Nets were wrong to draft him at #3.  The Nuggets would be wrong to accept him as the main piece in a trade involving Carmelo Anthony.  All he’s got is “upside,” and history suggests that “upside” is nothing more than a wish that a guy who hasn’t accomplished much will miraculously get much better.

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Be Where You Belong – Part 2

Filed Under: '10 - '11 Season, Comparing Players / Teams, GM Consultant, NBA, Positions, Talking About Hoops by Tweener — 3 Comments
12/10/2010

As all 3 of my devoted readers know, I have blogged frequently about how LeBron’s teammates in Cleveland were good enough to win a title with, and a bit less frequently about the flaws with the current Miami Heat roster (give me time, we’re only 25% through the season).  After all that blogging, I knew, as I watched the Heat put a beating on the Cavs last week, that I had some ‘splanin’ to do.  So, let me ‘splain…

In this posting, I talked about the importance of having players in the appropriate “slot” on their rosters, and said that the fortunes of a few teams in today’s NBA make more sense when seen through that prism.  (Apologies to those who were eagerly awaiting this follow-up; I said I’d elaborate on the point in my “next posting,” and then my next posting wound up being about Jim Boeheim.  Sorry.)

The Heat and the Cavs are two clear illustrations of what I’m trying to say.  I’ll start with the Cavs, who looked dreadful — not because they don’t have good players on the team, but because each player is playing one or two “slots” ahead of where he belongs.

To quickly go down the roster: Mo Williams is not capable of being the best player on a good NBA team.  But he’s perfectly adequate to be the second best player on a contender.  (Some people scoff at this, I know.  But they’re wrong.  Mo Williams is comparable to Jason Richardson, Vince Carter, and Roy Hibbert, each of whom is the second-best player on a playoff contending team.)  If Antawn Jamison is your second-best player, you’re in bad shape, but you could scrape by with him as your third-best.  Anderson Varejao was one of the best fourth-best-players in the league, and J.J. Hickson is a capable fifth-best player.  But, as the third and fourth best guys on a team, they are average at best.  Guys on the Cavs’ bench, like Daniel Gibson and Ramon Sessions, can play quality minutes on a good team, but can’t be expected to get an otherwise-deficient team over the hump.

Basically, the Cavs are one superstar away from having the pieces in place to be a competitor.  In other words, they were good enough to win with LeBron.  To be fair, I think they needed an upgrade in the third-best player slot, bumping Jamison to fourth and Varejao to fifth, in order to be dominant.  But, as far as holes on a roster go, a team that only needs an upgrade in the 3rd slot to be dominant is right in the mix of things.  So… just because they got pounded by the Heat, and looked hapless in the process, doesn’t prove that LeBron’s supporting cast in Cleveland wasn’t good enough to win with.

Then there’s the Heat, one of the most interesting experiments with an NBA roster that I can remember.  It’s not clear who the #1 guy is, because they have two #1 guys. Having LeBron and Wade in the top two “slots” on your roster has a chance to work simply because of the combined talent; they might  just be talented enough to overcome the fact that neither of them is really suited to be a “second” guy on any team.  And Bosh might one day become a capable “third” guy, but he has no track record of doing that.  All he’s ever been is the best guy on a terrible team.

After that, it gets ugly, especially with their current injuries.  Mario Chalmers is not good enough to be the fourth best guy on a championship team.  Joel Anthony, well, he’s not even a rotation player on a championship team!

The key here is Mike Miller.  In terms of talent, he’s clearly good enough to be the “fourth” guy on a championship team.  And, because he’s such a good spot-up shooter — capable of making a big impact while having the ball in his hands for only one or two seconds per possession if his teammates are creating good looks for him — his game is suited to be the fourth best guy on a very good team.

But there’s no guarantee that Miller will make this team much better.  For starters, he can’t do anything to change the fact that only one of the “top 3″ guys on the team is in the “slot” where he belongs.  And, getting back to the earlier point about having guys on the floor who fill traditional roles on a basketball team (which I blogged about here), it’s not clear to me that a lineup of James, Wade, Bosh, and Miller is capable of greatness.  Sure, they’re talented enough to consistently beat about 85% of the teams in the league.  But what about teams with an excellent point guard and big man?  I just don’t see how that lineup stops Parker and Duncan, CP3 and West, Rose and Boozer, or Rondo and KG with any regularity.

More on that over the next few weeks, I’m sure.

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Let’s Talk About LeBron

Filed Under: Comparing Players / Teams, NBA by Tweener — 2 Comments
11/28/2010

Somehow, we’re a few weeks into the season, and I haven’t yet dedicated a single posting to The Decision LeBron made to take his talents to South Beach.  Lots of people have had lots to say about The Decision, and I’m not going to repeat things I’ve heard elsewhere.

To me, there are two critical points to make.

1.  As I’ve blogged before, I don’t have anything against LeBron.  I mean, I tend not to hang around with guys who call themselves The King.  And I have trouble identifying with guys who tattoo “Chosen One” on their backs. (If I tattooed “Chosen One” on my back and walked around South Beach, it would seem extremely strange.  People would be asking “Chosen to do what?  Be first on line at Burger King?”)  But I don’t have a problem with LeBron personally.

My problem with him, as I’ve touched on in multiple postings (in addition to the above posting, here, here, and here, to name a few), is that he got anointed The Next Big Thing without earning it, and that he got the benefit of the doubt for reasons I couldn’t understand — actually, no… he didn’t even need the benefit of the doubt, because nobody even doubted him.  The amount of LeBrown-nosing that went on was unbelievable to me.

All of that said, I don’t blame LeBron for lacking humility.  I recognize that he’s lived an unusual life, with people telling him he was The King around the time most kids are dealing with pimples and peach-fuzz, and only saying it more often as he got older.

Here’s the thing, though… If you’re going to call yourself The King, and tattoo Chosen One on your back, and fancy yourself as Heir Jordan… then own it.  Put your teammates on your back. Demand the ball in the clutch.  Stay with the team that drafted you, or join one in need of a savior.

And, you know what else?  If you don’t want to be The King, and you don’t want to chase Jordan’s legacy, that’s also fine.  But, if that’s how you feel, then own that, too.  Look into the camera, and say “The fire doesn’t burn inside of me like it burned inside of Michael and burns inside of Kobe.  I’m more Robin than Batman.”  Had he done that, I would have been a bit disappointed, but I wouldn’t have held it against him.  Honestly, I think I’d have a bunch of respect for him if he had the guts to do that.  I mean, I don’t have the single-minded determination it takes to be the Greatest Of All Time in my profession, so I wouldn’t have a problem with LeBron if he acknowledged that he doesn’t, either.

Of course, he took neither of these paths.  Frankly, I’m not sure what path he’s traveling down.  When LeBron announced that he’d be Dwyane Wade’s sidekick taking his talents to South Beach, I was confused, and I’ve been confused since.

Basically, it seems to me like he has a personality disorder.  I mean, this is a guy who calls himself The King, and has a tattoo that says Chosen One.  (Have I mentioned that already?) This is a guy who arranged for an hour-long tv show just to cover his announcement about where he’d be taking his talent.  Obviously, this is a guy who’s interested in The Big Stage, and who likes the spotlight.

Yet, despite all of that, when it came time for his announcement, he announced that he was going to THE ONLY TEAM WHERE HE WOULD NOT CLEARLY BE THE TOP DOG. It’s crazy, right?  He couldn’t play with Kobe or Durant, so The Chosen One chose to play with the ONLY OTHER GUY IN THE LEAGUE whose skills compare to his own.  Weird, if you ask me.

2.  The Chosen One seems to be at least somewhat surprised at the anger that his Decision generated, and lots of ink has been spilled about how unpopular he has become and why.  Among the other things that The King doesn’t understand is this… sports fans are not always rational.  Sometimes we cheer for a guy just because he’s on our team, and boo a guy just because he isn’t.  The King was, to a large degree, immune from that simple fact for the first 7 years of his career.

He entered the league as a phenomenon, and people weren’t all that interested in booing the 18-year-old who was destined to be The Greatest Ever.  Then, by the time that wore off, lots of fans across the league wanted him on their own team.  So, when he went to places were he would otherwise be booed, he was cheered instead.  (As I blogged about here.)

Well, even Kings can’t fight gravity forever.  LeBron’s “popularity” in cities like New York, LA, and Chicago, was built on the mirage that he was going to be one of theirs.  And it was built in Cleveland on the mirage that he already was.  Once he took his talents to South Beach, that all came crashing down.

Now, it’s funny to me when people say they can’t understand why so many people hate LeBron all of a sudden.  Here’s why: It’s sports, dude.  It’s sports.

More on LeBron to come over the next few days.  I hope you’ll check back, and offer your comments!

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