Tag Archive: Dirk Nowitzki


The Mavs Need to Get Better at 3-on-3

Filed Under: '09 - '10 Season, GM Consultant, NBA by Tweener — Comments Off
04/29/2010

Watching the Mavericks gets confusing.  Sometimes, when I watch them, they look like the greatest team in the history of great teams.  They roll out a starting lineup of 4 guys who are regularly in the All-Star game (Dirk, Kidd, Butler, and Marion).  They have Jason Terry, who consistently competes for the Sixth Man of the Year Award.  And more.  They have this little sparkplug dude who sometimes checks in and just sets the arena on fire (Barea).  They have some rookie from France who is capable of dropping 40 on a given night (Beaubois).   I haven’t even mentioned Brendan Haywood, DeShawn Stevenson, and Eduardo Najera, each of whom has played significant minutes for competitive teams in the NBA.  When I watch the Mavs and they are clicking, I feel kind of like I’m watching the Globetrotters: part of me is amazed at what they can do, and part of me remembers that they are not as good as they seem.

Given how good they can be, their inability to win begs the question: Why aren’t they better in the playoffs?  The easy answer is to say that they are “inconsistent,” or that they aren’t built for the playoffs, but neither of those is really an answer — those are just things people say about any team that underachieves.  Here at Hoopservations.com, we dig deeper.

I think the reason the Mavs aren’t better in the playoffs is that having the best 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th man (or even all of the above) is not the way to win in the playoffs.  The teams that win in the playoffs have guys who marry girls who look like Eva Longoria  are the teams with the best “top 3.”  Check it out:

Bryant / Gasol / Bynum are better than Durant / Westbrook / Green.  The Lakers are up.

Nash / Amar’e / Richardson are better than Roy (especially when he’s injured) / Aldridge / Miller.  The Suns are up.

LeBron / Jamison / Williams are better than Rose / Deng / Noah.  The Cavs won.

Rondo / Allen / Pierce are better than Wade and whoever the other two best guys on the Heat are.  The Celts won.

Howard / Carter / Lewis are better than Wallace / Jackson / Felton.  The Magic won.

The only clear exception is the Hawks / Bucks series, because Johnson / Horford / Smith are better than the Bucks’ best 3 guys.  But the reason the Bucks are beating the Hawks is… um… actually, I have no friggin’ idea how the Bucks are beating the Hawks.  Whatever the reason, I don’t think it disproves the hoopservation that depth doesn’t matter all that much once the playoffs roll around.  A team is only going as far as its top 3 guys can take it.

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NBA Playoffs Vol. 3: Potpouri

Filed Under: '09 - '10 Season, GM Consultant, NBA by Tweener — Comments Off
04/14/2010

The last two entries have been about the stability of the NBA Playoffs on a year-to-year basis.  After making two entries about a topic that the average hoops fan finds to be moderately interesting AT BEST, a mere mortal might stop there, afraid that his readers would get bored and stop visiting his site.

But I’m no mere mortal.  So here is a potpouri of additional hoopservations based on the already-posted hoopservation that the teams in the playoffs hardly change from year to year.

1a.  Stockpiling lottery picks is no guarantee of success.  The Clippers, Wolves, Kings, Warriors, Pacers, and Knicks have been stockpiling lottery picks for years, and they all suck.  Oh, wait… the Knicks traded away a bunch of their lottery picks for overpriced scrubs, so they haven’t been stockpiling much of anything (except overpriced scrubs).  Nonetheless, the point remains the same: teams can’t expect a bunch of lottery picks to turn their fortunes around.  The system is set up for that to happen, but the system isn’t really working.

1b.  The way to get good through the draft is to find a superstar; one great draft is better than a bunch of pretty good ones.  Look at what happened to the Cavs after they got LeBron, the Nuggets after they got Carmelo, the Heat after they got D-Wade, the Lakers after they got Kobe, the Mavs after they got Dirk, the Hornets after they got CP3 (this year excepted because of injury), and the Magic after they got Howard.  Each of those teams turned their fortunes around with one pick much more quickly than the Clippers, Wolves, Kings, etc. have been able to turn things around with a bunch of picks.

1c.  Because a pick in the lottery is (i) a sought-after commodity, and (ii) not necessarily going to bring success, it is surprising that the picks are not traded more frequently.

1d.  At first glance, the emergence of the Thunder might render this hoopservation inaccurate, but that’s not the case.  The Thunder’s emergence does not prove that accumulating draft picks brings about success.  Rather, the Thunder’s emergence proves one of the very first hoopservations I made on this blog, arguing that,  when a team has a real star player who is healthy for a full season, that team will almost certainly make the playoffs.  Kevin Durant emerged as a star this year; that’s why the Thunder is in the playoffs.

2.  Just like stockpiling draft picks isn’t necessarily enough to lead to the playoffs, being good enough to make the playoffs for multiple years in a row doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re going to win the championship if you just keep trying.  In other words, if a team is thinking that it’s “almost there,” and can rely on acquired experience – and maybe a bit of tinkering at the edges of the roster – to get over the hump, that team is wrong.

3. There are guys in this league who are not good enough to be one of the two best players on a real contender, but are good enough to start on a championship team, and possibly even to be the final piece that makes a very good team great.  I’m talkin’ ‘bout guys like Danny Granger, Corey Maggette, Tayshaun Prince, and Hedo Turkoglu.

No lousy team should have any guys of this caliber on their rosters, unless that guy is under 25 and still improving (none of the guys mentioned is under 25 and still improving).  Given their salaries (which tend to be high), and the amount of good years they have left (3-5), they do not offer anything to a team that has a long way to go to get better.  Why not trade them for developing players and/or draft picks?

4.  If all of the above is true, then there should be many more trades than there are.  I understand that the rules about trades are complicated, and a team can’t just trade a guy like Corey Maggette for a young dude and a draft pick because of salary considerations, but, still… conceptually, bad teams need to be more aggressive about getting younger and further under the cap, and good teams need to be more aggressive about adding the final pieces to their puzzles.  If you’re on board with the concept, then you’ll figure out how to make trades work; throw in cash considerations, or additional draft picks, or young guys from the end of your bench.  Whatever.  Just don’t be a bad team overpaying Corey Maggette and hoping to get better through the lottery, or a pretty good team that’s afraid to make the move that might put you over the top.

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Thumbs Up To The Knicks For Getting T-Mac

Filed Under: '09 - '10 Season, GM Consultant, NBA by Tweener — Comments Off
02/20/2010

Much has been said about the Knicks trading for T-Mac. If you’re interested in reading about it, and haven’t had the chance to, you can check out some other people’s opinions here, and here.

I don’t have anything particularly interesting to say about the salary-cap ramifications of the deal that hasn’t already been said: the Knicks cleared a bunch of cap space, which will prove to be a good thing if they sign 2 superstars, and will prove to be a complete waste if they don’t. I’ve already blogged that it’s very difficult to build a championship team via free agency, and I won’t repeat myself (if the number of comments are any indication, nobody thought it was particularly worthwhile the first time). It’s a risky move to give away draft picks in exchange for freeing up cap space, but if any team can build via free agency, the New York Knicks with a whole bunch o’ cap space is as likely a team as any other to get it done.

When talking about the McGrady trade, I’m more interested in exploring the possibility that he – T-Mac – actually winds up helping the Knicks for reasons that have nothing to do with the salary cap. To be clear, I haven’t even seen McGrady move in months. For all I know, he limps around, or grimaces when he walks. Obviously, if that’s the case, he ain’t helping the Knicks on the court. I have to assume, though, that for the Knicks to give up draft picks in the trade, they had to at least see that he moves fluidly and without pain on the court. If that’s the case, then I think an under-reported aspect of this trade is that McGrady himself could be a valuable piece to a solid Knicks team in the near future.

That’s because basketball, much more so than football or baseball, is a game dominated by stars. Role players are important, if the team already has stars in place. But role players alone won’t make a bad team good.

Whatever else may be true about McGrady, he has been a star before; he’s one of the few guys in the league who has ever been the best player on a playoff team. In fact, I don’t think there are more than 30 guys in the league who can make that claim. By my quick count, the list begins with the 16 guys who were the best player on a playoff team last year:
1. LeBron
2. Pierce
3. Joe Johnson
4. Dwight Howard
5. Wade
6. Andre Iguadala
7. Derrick Rose
8. Richard Hamilton
9. Kobe
10. Carmelo
11. Duncan
12. Brandon Roy
13. Yao
14. Dirk
15. Chris Paul
16. Deron Williams

It also includes the following guys:
1. Iverson
2. Nash
3. Shaq
4. Kidd
5. Chauncey Billups
6. T-Mac
7. Ray Allen
8. KG
9. Baron Davis (remember when the Warriors were a threat?)
10. Arenas
11. Vince Carter
12. Grant Hill

There are probably 2 or 3 guys that I’m forgetting, so let’s say there are about 30 guys in the league who were, at some point, the best player on a playoff team. One team in the league has three of them (Celtics), and 6 teams have 2 of them (Cavs, Magic, Mavs, Sixers, Nuggets, and Suns). Following me? That covers 15 of the 30 guys.

That leaves 23 other teams in the league and 15 other guys who have ever been the best player on a playoff team (and one of those 15 guys is Gilbert Arenas, who, um, has some issues).

Well, the Knicks just got one of those guys. I’m not saying he can lead them back to the playoffs — as I said, I don’t even know if he’s walking without a limp. I’m saying that he has breathed rarified air, and he’s only 30 years old. If he’s able to be 75% of what he once was, he’s probably good enough to be the second or third best player on a solid team.

Thumbs up, Knicks.

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Will A Champion Be Built Via Free Agency?

Filed Under: GM Consultant, NBA by Tweener — Comments Off
01/01/2010

Much is made of the potential of the free agent class of 2010. Some teams have designed their rosters to maximize their cap space this off-season, and some stars are expecting to cash in.

If you look only at the talent that will be on the market (LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Dirk, etc.), the hoopla is justified. (Get it? HOOPla.) But, if history is any guide, teams expecting to turn their fortunes around via free agency are setting themselves up for disappointment.

Championship teams are almost never built around a player who was acquired via free agency. Look at the champions of the past 20 years. The Bulls were led by Jordan and Pippen, the Spurs by Duncan and Robinson, the Bad Boy Pistons by Thomas and Dumars, and the Rockets by Olajuwon and Drexler. Each of those teams drafted or traded for each of those players.

The 05-06 Heat acquired Wade via draft and Shaq via trade (that’s why Odom is on the Lakers). The 07-08 Celtics acquired Garnett and Allen via trade (that’s why Al Jefferson is on the Wolves and Jeff Green is on the Thunder), and Pierce via draft. Last year’s Lakers were led by Kobe and Bynum, whom they drafted, and Gasol, whom they traded for. The 03-04 Pistons are kind of an anomoly, because they won without a superstar. Two of their main players – Billups and Wallace – blossomed into stars as Pistons after mediocre careers elsewhere. That team is not really a model that other teams can expect to replicate. (When the Pistons acquired Billups via free agency, he had never averaged more than 14 ppg or 6 apg at the time.)

That leaves only the three-peat Lakers of ’00, ’01, and ’02. They acquired Shaq via free agency.

So, if history is any guide, then, unless you’re signing someone as dominant as Shaq via free agency, and you already have a young Kobe Bryant on your roster, you ain’t transforming your team from mediocre to champion via free agency.

Why is this? I don’t know. Two initial thoughts come to mind: First, if your team has enough money to spend on a superstar free agent, then it’s probably a pretty lousy team, and one superstar free agent won’t be able to turn it around.

Second, the team that signs a particular free agent probably offered him more money than all of the other teams. Thus, there’s a good chance that the team that signs him has overrated him. Think about it; 1 team decides to offer the guy, say, $10 million per year. The 29 other teams in the league fall into one of two categories: either they don’t think the guy is worth more than $10 million (if they did they would have offered him more than that), or their present payroll prevents them from offering him that much. (These teams were probably already better than the team that wound up getting him, as noted in the paragraph above).

If the team that signed him is going to get significantly better, then the player has to prove himself worthy of such a high salary. There’s a chance that he does, but, remember, a bunch of teams did not think he was worth $10 million, so there’s a good chance that he doesn’t. Even if he turns out to be a star, he has to be so good that he makes the lousy team he signed with better than the teams that already had a bunch of guys making a bunch of money.

When we think of someone as talented as LeBron signing with a lousy team, it’s easy to start thinking of that team becoming an instant contender. I’m not saying it isn’t possible, I’m just saying that it’s not how teams historically improve themselves. When you hear talk about a team getting much better via free agency, be skeptical.

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Yet More on Comparing Players

Filed Under: Comparing Players / Teams, Talking About Hoops by Tweener — Comments Off
11/22/2009

As noted in previous postings, I believe that conversations comparing players to each other are often too limited; we often talk about championships a player has won and the quality of that player’s supporting cast without going any further.

There are a few other facts that are too frequently overlooked:
Team record. A player who is a star will regularly get his team to the playoffs once he gets his professional legs under him. Real stars can join a terrible team and make it a perennial playoff team. In 2002-03, the Nuggets were 17-65. Then they got Carmelo Anthony. They have won at least 43 games every season since. In ’02-03, the Cavs were also 17-65. Then they got LeBron. They won 35 games during his rookie year, and at least 42 games ever since. In ’07-08, when Dwyane Wade spent much of the season injured, the Heat were 15-67. With Wade healthy last year, they won 43 games.

The point is that stars play on winning teams. If your team is 30-52 during a year when you were generally healthy, you ain’t a star.

This year will tell us a lot about whether some of the league’s premier players deserve to be classified as “stars,” or are merely above average: Hedo Turkoglu, Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Kevin Durant, Elton Brand, Barron Davis, Danny Granger, and Stephen Jackson.

Playoff series wins. Often, people talk about championships, but ignore victories in other playoff series like they don’t mean anything. Why? If you can take a miserable team, like, say, the Knicks of ’85, and make them a contender, haven’t you accomplished something?
That’s what Patrick Ewing did, and, yet, numerous people think of Ewing as a failure because he never won a championship. To me, a guy who regularly leads his team out of the first round is a superstar. Whether or not he’s able to take them further often says more about his supporting cast than it does about him. (To be clear, I’m arguing that a weak supporting cast is rarely a reason for a star to fail to lead his team to the playoffs, but may be a reason for a superstar to fail to lead his team to a championship.)

Statistics. If your team is regularly losing in the first round of the playoffs, you might be a superstar, but rarely. To meet that description, your numbers must be gaudy. It’s hard to say what the threshold is, but your average per game totals of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks should be above 40. (As a point of reference, Wade’s per game averages last year were 30 points, 7.5 assists, 5 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks — for a “total” of 46.)
In today’s game, I think the only superstars are Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Anthony, and, possibly, Howard, Nowitzki, and Paul. (Historically, Duncan was, but I don’t think he will continue to be going forward).

Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll regularly compare players to each other, whether in the context of discussing All-Star selections, award winners, or free agents. I hope we’ll use some of these metrics, so we can compare two players without simply talking about the quality of their teammates.

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More on Comparing Players

Filed Under: Comparing Players / Teams, Talking About Hoops by Tweener — Comments Off
11/20/2009

As I said in my previous posting, I think that, when we compare two players to each other, we often use criteria that are too limited.

Before really getting into the discussion about how to compare players, I think it makes sense to frame the discussion.

As I see it, there are 4 tiers of players in the NBA. For lack of better descriptions, I call them:
1. The Superstars
2. The Stars
3. The Guys Who Are Above Average , and
4. The Average / Below Average Guys.

These labels, I acknowledge, are not particularly creative. But I think they do the trick.

As for the Superstars,by definition, there can only a handful in the league at a time. 10 or fewer. In today’s game, the group is Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Carmelo, and possibly Dwight Howard, Dirk, and CP3 (as of two years ago, Tim Duncan was unquestionably among the superstars).

The Stars is a larger group than the Superstars, but still very small. At any moment, it includes 10-15 guys. In today’s game, it includes, among others, KG, Pierce, Joe Johnson, Brandon Roy, Chauncey, Duncan, Parker, and Nash.

The Guys Who Are Above Average is a much larger group. It includes guys who would make an average team better by about 5-10 wins per year. This group includes some guys who are solid all-around players, but not spectacular (See: Shane Battier and, come to think of it, just about all of his teammates on the Rockets), and it includes some role players who are so good at what they do that they bring their team a few extra wins per year (See: The Birdman and Joakim Noah).

It’s very important to identify guys in this group correctly. If a team mistakes one of them for a star, it could sign one of them to be a team leader, and then wind up with a mediocre team. (See: Toronto Raptors / Hedo Turkoglu; Detroit Pistons / Ben Gordon; Golden State Warriors / Corey Maggette). But, if you wind up with one of these guys as your third or fourth best player, you could be an excellent team. (See: Los Angeles Lakers / Lamar Odom; Orlando Magic / Rashard Lewis).

Then there are the average / below average guys. These guys constitute about 50-60 percent of the guys in the league. They run the gamut from, on one hand, guys who have trouble hanging onto a roster spot, to, on the other hand, guys who can play 12-24 minutes per game for a quality team. (See: The New York Knicks, aside from David Lee, who cover the spectrum from guys who barely belong in the league to guys who shouldn’t be playing more than 24 minutes on any team that is really trying to be good.)

The next posting, coming shortly, will discuss measurements to use to determine which category a player belongs in.

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Season Predictions – Part 1 of 4

Filed Under: '09 - '10 Season, NBA, Season Predictions by Tweener — Comments Off
10/21/2009

This is the first in a four-part series of posts predicting playoff seedings for the upcoming year.  Of course, predictions usually get made before the season starts, and these predictions are being posted after all teams have already played a few games.  Why?  Because I don’t watch preseason games. It doesn’t tell me enough about the teams playing to be worth my time. (If someone wants to pay me to write this blog, I’ll be happy to watch preseason games.  Until then, I ain’t watchin’ no preseason game.)  I’m not saying that the first 3 or 4 games tell me much of anything about a team, but it can’t hurt to get at least some data about how a team is actually playing.

I begin my analysis by looking at individual players; specifically, stars.  For a team to make the playoffs, it obviously must have balance, depth, and role players.  No question.  But, in general, it also must have at least 1 star.

I don’t see more than 1 or 2 NBA teams making the playoffs that do not have an All-Star on their roster.  I understand that Utah, Chicago, and Philadelphia made the playoffs last year even though they had no All-Stars, but, as a general rule, I think teams need to have All-Stars to make the playoffs.   So, when attempting to pick the playoff teams, I think it makes sense to start by trying to pick the All-Stars.

A useful starting point is last year’s All-Star rosters:

EAST

Allen Iverson (Detroit)

Dwyane Wade (Miami)

LeBron James (Cleveland)

Kevin Garnett (Boston)

Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Joe Johnson (Atlanta)

Jameer Nelson (Orlando – injured)

Ray Allen (Boston)

Danny Granger (Indiana)

Paul Pierce (Boston)

Chris Bosh (Toronto)

Mo Williams (Cleveland)

Scot Pollard (Boston)

Just kidding.  Scot Pollard was not an All-Star.  I was just looking for an excuse to link to some pictures of Scot Pollard.  Like this one:
Scott Pollard

And this one:

And, oh, most certainly, this one:

Devin Harris (New Jersey)

WEST

Kobe Bryant (LA Lakers)

Chris Paul (New Orleans)

Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Yao Ming (Houston)

Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)

Shaquille O’Neal (Phoenix)

Brandon Roy (Portland)

Chauncey Billups (Denver)

Pau Gasol (LA Lakers)

David West (New Orleans)

Tony Parker (San Antonio)

I expect this year’s All-Star rosters to be very much the same as last year’s, with a few changes.  I see Derrick Rose making the All-Star team in the East, and probably Gilbert Arenas and Elton Brand, as well, assuming they are healthy.  If that’s right, the roster will be:

Derrick Rose (Chicago)

Dwyane Wade (Miami)

LeBron James (Cleveland)

Kevin Garnett (Boston)

Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Joe Johnson (Atlanta)

Gilbert Arenas (Washington)

Ray Allen (Boston)

Danny Granger (Indiana)

Paul Pierce (Boston)

Chris Bosh (Toronto)

Elton Brand (Philadelphia)

Next 3:  Devin Harris, Michael Redd, Hedo Turkoglu

Sleepers:  Raymond Felton, Jermaine O’Neal

The Western Conference All-Star team will also be very much the same as last year’s, with a few changes.  Shaq has moved to the East, and Yao is out.  I expect Carmelo Anthony to make the All-Star team, and expect Kevin to make a run at it (Blake Griffin, too, if he returns soon).  I also expect Derron Williams to make the team, and, if Tracy McGrady is healthy, he needs to be considered as well.  I will believe that McGrady is back to 100% when I see it, so I’m predicting this All-Star roster:

Kobe Bryant (LA Lakers)

Chris Paul (New Orleans)

Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)

LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland)

Kevin Durant (OK City)

Brandon Roy (Portland)

Carmelo Anthony (Denver)

Pau Gasol (LA Lakers)

David West (New Orleans)

Derron Williams (Utah)

Next 3:  Tony Parker, Al Jefferson, Chauncey Billups

Sleepers: Jeff Green, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby

Part 2 of my 4 part series predicting the playoff teams will be posted tomorrow.

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