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How Good Is Brandon Jennings?

Filed Under: Comparing Eras, Comparing Players / Teams, Talking About Hoops, Uncategorized by KraverWP — Leave a comment
11/29/2009

One of the big stories of the early season is Brandon Jennings, who has put up a 55-point game, and has led the Bucks to a winning record. He has caught me, and many others, by surprise.

But, while I give him credit for his early success, I don’t see it continuing. I’m basing this not on any insider information I have, or even on a scouting report of the guy, but on the simple fact that he shoots too much for a point guard. His scoring average might remain high, but the Bucks’ success is unlikely to continue.

Jennings has taken 284 shots in his first 15 games, for an average of approximately 19 per game. As a point of comparison, consider some of the numbers put up by the great point guards of the modern era:

In 979 career games, Isiah Thomas took 15,904 shots, for an average of 16.2 per game. He’s at the high end of the spectrum, and he still took more than 2 fewer shots per game than Jennings.

Magic played 906 career games, and took 11,951 shots, for an average of 13.2.
Kidd has played 1,124 games and has taken 13,720 shots, for an average of 12.2.
Nash has played 950 career games, and has taken 10,151 shots, for an average of 10.7.
Stockton played 1,504 career games and took 13,658 shots, for an average of 9.1.

Even in comparison to some of the best young point guards in the league today, he is still at the high end of the spectrum.
Chris Paul has played 310 career games, and has taken 4507 shots, for an average of 14.5 shots.
Rajon Rondo has played 251 career games, and has taken 2072 shots, for an average of 8.3.
Deron Williams has played 324 career games, and has taken 4206 shots, for an average of 13.0.

Clearly, Jennings is shooting more than these successful point guards. Perhaps he is simply so talented that he can break the mold, and redefine the position. I doubt it, for reasons that have nothing to do with questions about his talent. A closer look at his numbers reveals that he shoots 43.3% from the field, and averages 5.5 assists per game. Those numbers compare unfavorably to the numbers of other great point guards:

Magic shot 52% from the field, and averaged 11.2 assists per game.
Stockton shot 51.5% from the field, and averaged 10.5 assists per game.
Nash shoots 48.8% from the field, and averages 8.1 assists per game.
Isiah shot 45% from the field, and averaged 9.3 assists per game.
Kidd shoots 40% from the field, and averages 9.2 assists per game.
Thus, Kidd is the only one with a lower field-goal percentage, and his assist numbers are much higher.

Jennings’s numbers also compare unfavorably to the premiere young guards in the game today:
Paul shoots 47% from the field, and averages 9.9 assists per game.
Rondo shoots 48% from the field, and averages 5.9 assists per game (he averaged more than 8 assists per game in each of the past two seasons).
Williams shoots 46.8% from the field, and averages 8.7 assists per game.

So, Jennings’s numbers, while impressive, raise numerous doubts about his game. To be sure, he is young, and it’s not fair to say that someone is fatally flawed based on the fact that, after only 15 games, his numbers compare unfavorably to some of the greats at his position. But, a point guard’s job is to get his team good shots, and the clearest measurements of success are his assists per game along with his shooting numbers. No point guard that I can think of has led his team to the playoffs, let alone a championship, by passing so little while shooting so often and so poorly.

All of this is based on numbers alone — I haven’t seen him play yet. I tried to DVR the nationally-televised game he played in on Friday, but something went wrong with my DVR. (Amazingly, it seems to tape everything my wife wants to tape, but regularly fails to tape my shows. Coincidence?) I was pretty bummed, not only because I wanted to see Jennings play, but also because I’m quite sure that I’ve watched more than 1,000 games of basketball in my life, and I can’t remember ever watching the Bucks. I mean, seriously, have they been on national TV since Don Nelson stopped coaching them?

I will make sure to watch them soon, even if it means that I have to research for a local bar that will be broadcasting one of their games, and head over there to see them. Until then, all I have to go by when judging Jennings are his numbers. While some of those numbers are impressive, the bottom line is that they are not the kinds of numbers I would want my team’s point guard to be putting up.

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Yet More on Comparing Players

Filed Under: Comparing Players / Teams, Talking About Hoops by KraverWP — Leave a comment
11/22/2009

As noted in previous postings, I believe that conversations comparing players to each other are often too limited; we often talk about championships a player has won and the quality of that player’s supporting cast without going any further.

There are a few other facts that are too frequently overlooked:
Team record. A player who is a star will regularly get his team to the playoffs once he gets his professional legs under him. Real stars can join a terrible team and make it a perennial playoff team. In 2002-03, the Nuggets were 17-65. Then they got Carmelo Anthony. They have won at least 43 games every season since. In ’02-03, the Cavs were also 17-65. Then they got LeBron. They won 35 games during his rookie year, and at least 42 games ever since. In ’07-08, when Dwyane Wade spent much of the season injured, the Heat were 15-67. With Wade healthy last year, they won 43 games.

The point is that stars play on winning teams. If your team is 30-52 during a year when you were generally healthy, you ain’t a star.

This year will tell us a lot about whether some of the league’s premier players deserve to be classified as “stars,” or are merely above average: Hedo Turkoglu, Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Kevin Durant, Elton Brand, Barron Davis, Danny Granger, and Stephen Jackson.

Playoff series wins. Often, people talk about championships, but ignore victories in other playoff series like they don’t mean anything. Why? If you can take a miserable team, like, say, the Knicks of ’85, and make them a contender, haven’t you accomplished something?
That’s what Patrick Ewing did, and, yet, numerous people think of Ewing as a failure because he never won a championship. To me, a guy who regularly leads his team out of the first round is a superstar. Whether or not he’s able to take them further often says more about his supporting cast than it does about him. (To be clear, I’m arguing that a weak supporting cast is rarely a reason for a star to fail to lead his team to the playoffs, but may be a reason for a superstar to fail to lead his team to a championship.)

Statistics. If your team is regularly losing in the first round of the playoffs, you might be a superstar, but rarely. To meet that description, your numbers must be gaudy. It’s hard to say what the threshold is, but your average per game totals of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks should be above 40. (As a point of reference, Wade’s per game averages last year were 30 points, 7.5 assists, 5 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks — for a “total” of 46.)
In today’s game, I think the only superstars are Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Anthony, and, possibly, Howard, Nowitzki, and Paul. (Historically, Duncan was, but I don’t think he will continue to be going forward).

Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll regularly compare players to each other, whether in the context of discussing All-Star selections, award winners, or free agents. I hope we’ll use some of these metrics, so we can compare two players without simply talking about the quality of their teammates.

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