Archive for April, 2010


The Mavs Need to Get Better at 3-on-3

Watching the Mavericks gets confusing.  Sometimes, when I watch them, they look like the greatest team in the history of great teams.  They roll out a starting lineup of 4 guys who are regularly in the All-Star game (Dirk, Kidd, Butler, and Marion).  They have Jason Terry, who consistently competes for the Sixth Man of the Year Award.  And more.  They have this little sparkplug dude who sometimes checks in and just sets the arena on fire (Barea).  They have some rookie from France who is capable of dropping 40 on a given night (Beaubois).   I haven’t even mentioned Brendan Haywood, DeShawn Stevenson, and Eduardo Najera, each of whom has played significant minutes for competitive teams in the NBA.  When I watch the Mavs and they are clicking, I feel kind of like I’m watching the Globetrotters: part of me is amazed at what they can do, and part of me remembers that they are not as good as they seem.

Given how good they can be, their inability to win begs the question: Why aren’t they better in the playoffs?  The easy answer is to say that they are “inconsistent,” or that they aren’t built for the playoffs, but neither of those is really an answer — those are just things people say about any team that underachieves.  Here at Hoopservations.com, we dig deeper.

I think the reason the Mavs aren’t better in the playoffs is that having the best 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th man (or even all of the above) is not the way to win in the playoffs.  The teams that win in the playoffs have guys who marry girls who look like Eva Longoria  are the teams with the best “top 3.”  Check it out:

Bryant / Gasol / Bynum are better than Durant / Westbrook / Green.  The Lakers are up.

Nash / Amar’e / Richardson are better than Roy (especially when he’s injured) / Aldridge / Miller.  The Suns are up.

LeBron / Jamison / Williams are better than Rose / Deng / Noah.  The Cavs won.

Rondo / Allen / Pierce are better than Wade and whoever the other two best guys on the Heat are.  The Celts won.

Howard / Carter / Lewis are better than Wallace / Jackson / Felton.  The Magic won.

The only clear exception is the Hawks / Bucks series, because Johnson / Horford / Smith are better than the Bucks’ best 3 guys.  But the reason the Bucks are beating the Hawks is… um… actually, I have no friggin’ idea how the Bucks are beating the Hawks.  Whatever the reason, I don’t think it disproves the hoopservation that depth doesn’t matter all that much once the playoffs roll around.  A team is only going as far as its top 3 guys can take it.

Final Thoughts on the Regular Season

Now that the playoffs are starting to heat up (as much as it is possible for them to heat up with multiple days of rest between the games), people will have very little reason to think about the 2009-10 regular season moving forward.  Before we get to the point of forgetting the regular season entirely, here are a few hoopservations to keep in mind when the time comes to predict what will happen next year.

1.   The Lakers finished #1 in the West, but they looked much more dominant in the beginning of the season than the end of it.  The truth is that they’re an old team, and, unless they shake some things up, it’s hard to see them dominating next year.

2.   The Clippers finished with a better record than seven teams in the league.  That’s hardly impressive, but it means that they showed glimmers of hope (and raises some serious questions about those seven teams).  They’ll be adding Blake Griffin, another lottery pick, and probably a free agent or two.  If we can overlook the fact that they are the Clippers, there is reason to think they will be scary.

3.   Cleveland is a good, but aging, team.  Contrary to popular belief, LeBron is not surrounded by a bunch of stiffs.  But they are getting older.  If that aging roster stays the same, I won’t be picking them to win the East.

4.   If we imagine that no teams make any roster changes, the three teams that should make the biggest jump next year are the Thunder, Clippers, and Blazers (the Thunder because they’re getting better by the day, the Clippers and Blazers because they’ll be getting their injured players back).  The teams that should take the biggest falls are the Lakers, Cavs, Suns, Celtics and Bucks (the Bucks because they overachieved, the others because of age).

Of course, there is no reason to think that most, or even any, of the teams in the NBA will go into next season with the exact same rosters they have now.  We’ll obviously have to look at the moves that get made and evaluate them once they are done.  For now, it’s time to shift the focus back to the playoffs… Go Thunder!!

Ok, I’ll get this part out of the way at the beginning, so I’m not accused of being a contrarian, or a LeBron hater, or anything else that people are said to be if they question whether LeBron can actually walk on water… he’s the MVP this year.  The dude is scary good.   I mean, he averaged 30 points, 7 assists and 9 board per game.  That’s awesome.  No doubt.

But, still… the hyperbole about this guy just continues to get crazier.  Months ago, I pointed out that (i) LeBron’s numbers are not all that much better than other superstars who do not get nearly the same amount of credit, and also that (ii) Bill Simmons, among other people, essentially winds up drooling over himself when he writes about LeBron.  Ok.  Whatever.  Been there done that.

This morning, though, I was listening to Mike and Mike on the radio for a few minutes, and their guest was Dickie V.  Now, I know that Dickie V is not really the guy we look to when we hope people will start to turn the excitement down a notch.  But this was out of control.   Dickie V said – and both Mikes agreed with him – that LeBron is on his way to being the best of all time.  Yup.  Numero uno.  He then launched into the typical rant about how amazing it is that LeBron has done so much at such a young age with such a lousy supporting cast.

Is anyone else tired of hearing that, or is it just me?  LeBron is in his seventh season.  Isn’t it about time we start evaluating what he has done instead of what he has the potential to do?  I mean, how many years in the league does he deserve before people stop talking about how much potential he has to be great when he grows up?

Plus, LeBron’s teammates are good.  Very good.  I’ve already blogged about this elsewhere (here and here, for example), and won’t repeat myself.  The bottom line is that there are 4 different guys on LeBron’s team who were once All-Stars. And it’s not like they’re all old and crippled.  They still run, jump, pass, and shoot.  They’d run circles around D-Wade’s “supporting cast.”  Yet, when Dickie V explained why MJ was able to win so many more titles than LeBron has been able to win, he wound up knocking LeBron’s supporting cast, and talking about what a wonderful rebounder Bill Cartwright was on the Bulls.  Seriously.  Bill Cartwright.

There’s more.  Dickie V said – and the two Mikes agreed – that LeBron can score “whenever he wants.”  Yup.  Whenever he wants.  So, presumably, the only reason the Cavs lost any games this season was that LeBron didn’t “want” to win them.

I’m not sure why people need to give him soooo much credit.  He’s awesome.  He’s the MVP.  Until he proves that he can lead a team to a championship, he deserves to be grouped with the other superstars who never won a championship — not with the ones who won six.

Cheers to the Blazers and the Heat

If things go the way that I predict, the Blazers and the Heat will both be done for the season by this time next week.  The teams remaining will move on, and, when people look back at this season, they won’t think much about the Blazers or the Heat.  Before we get to that point, I’d like to spend a few minutes giving both teams a shoutout, because, the way I see it, they both overachieved.  At least a few people affiliated with both teams deserve a bunch of credit.

Let’s start with Miami.  47-35, for that collection of talent?  Really?  For starters, cheers to D-Wade.  27 ppg, shooting 48%, with more than 6 apg plus a block and a steal.  The dude is a superstar.  If LeBron carried that “supporting cast” to a 47-35 record, people would be talking about him like he walks on water.  (Hey, LeBron carried a much better supporting cast to a 61-21 record, and people talk about him like he walks on water.)

Cheers, too, to the young guy, Beasley, who is starting to find his form, and to the old guy, O’Neal, who has at least a little something left in the tank.  And, while we’re at it, might as well give the obligatory shoutout to the coach, Erik Spoelstra.   I can’t sit here and highlight great coaching moves that he made, but we live in a world where coaches are often graded simply by the results they get, and, well, you can’t argue with the results this dude got from one superstar and a bunch of role players.

As for the Blazers, wow.  Every time I looked up, another Blazer was getting injured.  Even the coach got injured and missed a bunch of games.  They only had Oden for 21 games, and Przybilla for 30.  These guys leaned on Juwan Howard — yes, that Juwan Howard – for 22 mpg over 73 games.  Yet, they finished #6 in the West, at 50-32.  LaMarcus Aldridge is developing into a star (18 ppg and 8 rpg).   Brandon Roy is a bad man.  Very bad.  Andre Miller is one of the most underrated point guards in the league (the dude had THE SIXERS in the playoffs last year), and Marcus Camby, well… 11 boards and 2 blocks per game speak for themselves.

Unfortunately, I think time is running out on both of these squads for this season.  Next year, though, look out.  The Blazers get Oden and Przybilla back.  And the Heat?  According to my secret sources (read: the podcasts that I listen to – publicly available to anyone), Chris Bosh wants to head down there.  That could give Batman Wade the Robin that he needs, and should send the Heat beyond the first round.

NBA Playoffs Vol. 3: Potpouri

The last two entries have been about the stability of the NBA Playoffs on a year-to-year basis.  After making two entries about a topic that the average hoops fan finds to be moderately interesting AT BEST, a mere mortal might stop there, afraid that his readers would get bored and stop visiting his site.

But I’m no mere mortal.  So here is a potpouri of additional hoopservations based on the already-posted hoopservation that the teams in the playoffs hardly change from year to year.

1a.  Stockpiling lottery picks is no guarantee of success.  The Clippers, Wolves, Kings, Warriors, Pacers, and Knicks have been stockpiling lottery picks for years, and they all suck.  Oh, wait… the Knicks traded away a bunch of their lottery picks for overpriced scrubs, so they haven’t been stockpiling much of anything (except overpriced scrubs).  Nonetheless, the point remains the same: teams can’t expect a bunch of lottery picks to turn their fortunes around.  The system is set up for that to happen, but the system isn’t really working.

1b.  The way to get good through the draft is to find a superstar; one great draft is better than a bunch of pretty good ones.  Look at what happened to the Cavs after they got LeBron, the Nuggets after they got Carmelo, the Heat after they got D-Wade, the Lakers after they got Kobe, the Mavs after they got Dirk, the Hornets after they got CP3 (this year excepted because of injury), and the Magic after they got Howard.  Each of those teams turned their fortunes around with one pick much more quickly than the Clippers, Wolves, Kings, etc. have been able to turn things around with a bunch of picks.

1c.  Because a pick in the lottery is (i) a sought-after commodity, and (ii) not necessarily going to bring success, it is surprising that the picks are not traded more frequently.

1d.  At first glance, the emergence of the Thunder might render this hoopservation inaccurate, but that’s not the case.  The Thunder’s emergence does not prove that accumulating draft picks brings about success.  Rather, the Thunder’s emergence proves one of the very first hoopservations I made on this blog, arguing that,  when a team has a real star player who is healthy for a full season, that team will almost certainly make the playoffs.  Kevin Durant emerged as a star this year; that’s why the Thunder is in the playoffs.

2.  Just like stockpiling draft picks isn’t necessarily enough to lead to the playoffs, being good enough to make the playoffs for multiple years in a row doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re going to win the championship if you just keep trying.  In other words, if a team is thinking that it’s “almost there,” and can rely on acquired experience – and maybe a bit of tinkering at the edges of the roster – to get over the hump, that team is wrong.

3. There are guys in this league who are not good enough to be one of the two best players on a real contender, but are good enough to start on a championship team, and possibly even to be the final piece that makes a very good team great.  I’m talkin’ ‘bout guys like Danny Granger, Corey Maggette, Tayshaun Prince, and Hedo Turkoglu.

No lousy team should have any guys of this caliber on their rosters, unless that guy is under 25 and still improving (none of the guys mentioned is under 25 and still improving).  Given their salaries (which tend to be high), and the amount of good years they have left (3-5), they do not offer anything to a team that has a long way to go to get better.  Why not trade them for developing players and/or draft picks?

4.  If all of the above is true, then there should be many more trades than there are.  I understand that the rules about trades are complicated, and a team can’t just trade a guy like Corey Maggette for a young dude and a draft pick because of salary considerations, but, still… conceptually, bad teams need to be more aggressive about getting younger and further under the cap, and good teams need to be more aggressive about adding the final pieces to their puzzles.  If you’re on board with the concept, then you’ll figure out how to make trades work; throw in cash considerations, or additional draft picks, or young guys from the end of your bench.  Whatever.  Just don’t be a bad team overpaying Corey Maggette and hoping to get better through the lottery, or a pretty good team that’s afraid to make the move that might put you over the top.

NBA Playoffs Vol. 2: Hold Onto Your PG

As I blogged recently, ain’t much changin’ in the NBA playoffs on a year-to-year basis.  The minimal amount of movement of teams into or out of the playoffs is remarkable, and (I failed to point this out in my previous posting) becomes even more remarkable when one considers that injuries to guys like Yao and T-Mac for the Rockets, CP3 for the Hornets, and D-Wade for the Heat, have a lot to do with the movement that we actually have seen.

One hoopservation about the minimal movement of teams into and out of the playoffs is that, given how little movement occurs, it can’t be a coincidence that, when movement does occur, it often involves a playoff team losing its PG and then falling out of the playoffs.

The clearest example is Detroit.  The Pistons were the #2 seed in the East as recently as the 2007-08 season.  Then they traded Chauncey Billups, and now they are an afterthought.  I know that lots of terrible executive decisions have been made in Detroit over the last two years — for example, the decisions leading the auto industry to the verge of collapse — but the decision to trade Chauncey Billups for no perceivable reason has to rank amongst the worst.  The Pistons need a bailout of their own if they’re going to make it back to the playoffs.

Detroit is the clearest example, but not the only example.  This year’s 76ers are 27-54, and do not even resemble a playoff team.  Last year, they were a playoff team.  Then they got rid of Andre Miller, and completely lost their mojo.

Not too long ago, the Wizards were a young, exciting playoff team.  Then Gilbert Arenas injured his knee.  Then Gilbert Arenas injured his brain.  Now, the Wizards are a joke.

In ’06-’07, the Warriors not only made the playoffs, but won a series, led by Barron Davis.  Now Barron’s gone from Golden State, and the Warriors are gone from the playoffs.

Lastly, the Nets — yes, the Nets — were a playoff team in ’06-’07.  They traded Jason Kidd in the middle of the following season and, well… you know what happened.

In sum, one pattern we can perceive when we look over the minimal movement that has happened into and out of the playoffs is that often a team in the playoffs screws things up when it gets rid of its PG.

NBA Playoffs Vol. 1: Deja Vu All Over Again

The NBA Playoffs are almost upon us, marking the beginning of the end of my first season as a BasketBlogger.  It’s a time for reflection, a time to take stock of lessons learned.

Aside from the obvious lesson — that I shouldn’t quit my day job — the main thing I’ve learned is that this game, while completely unpredictable on the college level, is actually very predictable on the pro level.  It’s remarkable how little the standings change on a year-to-year basis.

Check out the current standings here, and the standings for the ends of each of the past three seasons here, here, and here.  You generally see some movement in the rankings of the playoff teams, but the teams that go to the playoffs hardly change.  In fact, seven teams have been to the playoffs each of the past four years (Cleveland, Orlando, Lakers, Dallas, Denver, Utah, and San Antonio).  Six teams have not been to the playoffs in any of the past four years (Indiana, New York, Memphis, Clippers, Minnesota, and Sacramento).  So, in a league with 30 teams, where 16 teams make the playoffs every year, 13 of those teams have not missed the playoffs in four years, and 13 of those teams have not made the playoffs in four years.

Maybe I’m just a dork with nothing better to do than think deep thoughts about basketball statistics, but I think that’s quite interesting.  The system is not set up for that kind of year-to-year consistency; bad teams are rewarded with good draft picks, and free agents are able to leave to go to whatever team they want when their contracts are up (theoretically, the bad teams are the ones that can offer good money and lots of playing time).  Other sports do not have type of consistency; in the NFL, it’s quite common for Super Bowl teams – even defending champions – to miss the playoffs the following season.   Aside from the Colts, Patriots, and Chargers, there’s essentially a revolving door into and out of the NFL playoffs on a year-by-year basis.

This year-to-year stability leads to a number of hoopservations, which I’ll discuss over the next few days.  I hope you’ll check back regularly, and jump into the discussion.

What The Hell Just Happened?

I don’t remember watching an NCAA final and being as perplexed as I was yesterday.  Usually, I know who I’m rooting for.  If it’s one of those rare years when neither Penn nor Syracuse is in it (ahem), then there is probably some other team that I’ve taken a liking to, or, if not, then I’m probably just rooting for the underdog.

Butler was as great of an underdog story as I remember watching, but I wasn’t really rooting for the Bulldogs yesterday.  Nothing against them, but it was hard for me to get my head around the idea that the Butler Bulldogs would actually be the national champions.  Now that the game is over, my thoughts and feelings about the whole thing are no clearer than they were when the game started.  In no particular order, these are those thoughts and feelings:

1.  Appreciation.  That was a fantastic college basketball game, between two excellent teams.  Duke rolled out a solid Duke team, combining stars and role players.  And Butler is good.  Real good.  This is not a team lacking talent, that gets by with a system that compensates for its talent deficiency (ala Princeton).  Nor is it a team that relies on one star player (ala Weber State relying on Harold “the Show” Arceneaux) to slay a powerhouse.  This team has a number of weapons on offense, and plays stifling defense.

And, of course, I not only appreciated the teams themselves, but also the story.  One on hand, you have one of the most prestigious programs in the country.  On the other hand, you have the closest thing to a real-life Hickory High School from Hoosiers.

I love this game.

2.  Confusion.  Butler is a great story because it is able to achieve so much even though it has a basketball budget of less than $2 million, while some of the power programs have budgets of more than $10 million.  Kudos to Butler.

The flip side of that coin, though, is that tens of millions of dollars are being wasted.  If I was in charge of an enterprise with a budget of $10 million, and I just got showed up by a competitor with a budget of $2 million, I’d be pretty angry.  Basically, the system is not supposed to give Butler a national championship.  The fact that Butler came within one shot of winning means that the system is broken; lots of people in the system, with big budgets, are very bad at their jobs.

3.  Anger.  As a fan of the game, while I appreciate what Butler did, the realization that the system is broken makes me somewhat angry.  What are all of these programs with huge basketball budgets doing with that money?  The teams with the biggest budgets seem not to be recruiting the right guys.  The “experts” whose job it is to tell the casual fan what is going on in the game do not present the right stories.  (Though, to be fair, the people who rank the teams knew that Butler was good — why the Tournament Committee decided to make Butler a #5 seed is beyond me.)  The games that get featured on TV are not necessarily the ones with the best teams in them.

I don’t hold it against the “experts” that they didn’t predict Butler making the finals — Butler went on a great run in a single elimination tournament, and that’s part of the beauty of the game.  I do, though, blame them for not mentioning Gordon Hayward when they put together their pre-season All-American teams.  I do blame them for not putting Butler games on television.  I do blame them for not recruiting Shelvin Mack or Matt Howard as aggressively as they recruit McDonald’s All-Americans who are going to leave them after one year.

4.  Wonder.  Are mid-majors really poised to do just as well as the majors over the long term, or is this a one-shot deal?  Well, for Butler specifically, part of the answer is in the hands of Gordon Hayward.  If he comes back, joining Mack and Howard on next year’s team, these guys will be a force.  In the longer term, the answer is largely in the hands of Brad Stevens.  He’s got a good thing going there, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t be able to keep it going for a while.  But, if he jumps to a job at a bigger program, then we’ll probably look back on it as a one shot deal.

Not to put too much weight on his shoulders, but Stevens seems to have a lot of say in whether the mid-majors can really compete with the big boys.  Maybe I’m overstating it, but it seems to me that, if he turns down a job at a bigger program to stay at Butler, and he continues to succeed there, he’s basically sending the message that mid-majors can compete at the highest level.  But, if he uses his success simply as a stepping stone to go to a bigger program, it’s hard to see what would have to happen for mid-majors to really compete on the same level as the big boys over the long term.

5.  Enlightenment.  Because there is so much turnover in college hoops on a year-to-year basis, and because talented freshmen have such a big impact on the game, I think we sometimes go too far when we analyze each season in a vacuum.  Each of the teams in this year’s Final Four was in last year’s tournament; Michigan State had made the finals, and Duke had made the Sweet 16.

Hindsight is always 20-20, and I’m not saying that I now know something that, if I had known it three weeks ago, would have enabled me to predict what was going to happen in this year’s tournament.  I am saying, though, that next year, I’m going to pay much more attention to the teams that (i) played in this year’s tournament and (ii) return most of their starters, than I am going to pay to the teams that ESPN highlights on College GameDay.

Especially Butler.

Don’t Expand The Tournament

I wouldn’t be worth much as a basketblogger if I didn’t blog about the proposed expansion of the NCAA tournament.  Frankly, I don’t have much to say that hasn’t already been said. I think it’s a terrible idea, and just about everyone I’ve heard speak about it thinks it’s a terrible idea, too.   To the extent I have any thoughts about it that haven’t already been raised by other people, these are those thoughts:

1.   The top 8 seeds would get screwed.  Right now, the #1 seeds essentially have a bye in the first round.  And the #2 seeds win their first-round games about 95% of the time.  But, if the field is expanded, and the top 32 teams get byes, then, by the time the #1 and #2 seeds are playing their first game, they aren’t playing the likes of Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Eastern Tennessee State.  Instead, they are playing a team that already won a tournament game.  Thus, they’ll be playing tougher opponents.

In other words, the 64 teams that wind up in the round of 64 will come much closer to representing the 64 best teams in the country than the current field of 64 comes to representing the 64 best teams in the country (because the current field of 64 includes the champions of terrible conferences — teams that will get eliminated before the top 32 seeds take the court in the new format).  To me, this is a pretty big step back for the #1 and #2 seeds, and, therefore, the expansion would make the regular season less important (because it minimizes the award for getting a top seed).

2.   The whole idea of the expansion, as I understand it, is to make more money.  (I know that the NCAA has some half-hearted pitch about it being better for the players, but all of the commentators I have listened to say it’s about the money.)  I’m not going to grapple with whether that’s a legitimate motivation; that’s a different topic for a different day.  For now, I’ll assume that it’s legit.  My question is why the NCAA thinks that this expansion will actually make more money.

Right now, the first two days of the tournament are exciting because they include some close, quality matchups, like 8/9, 7/10, and 6/11 games.  As the tournament is currently constructed, an 8/9 game involves a team ranked between 29 and 32, and a team ranked between 33 and 36, of all the teams in the tournament.  The 7/10 game involves a team ranked between 25 and 28 and a team ranked between 37 and 40.

Well, the first two days of the expanded tournament will have no such matchups.  Any team ranked 1-8 will have a bye.  So the best teams playing on these first two days will be #9 seeds.  And they’ll be playing… wait for it… teams seeded #24 (in other words, teams ranked between 93 and 96 of all the tournament teams).  The “best” matchups will be games played between #16 and #17 seeds.

Ummm… why the hell does the NCAA assume that people will be excited to watch these games?  Under the current system, people take extended lunches, or leave early from work — or even take the whole two days off from work — to watch the games.  Does the NCAA think that people are going to do that to watch a 9 v 24 game?  A 16 v 17 game?

More importantly, why does the NCAA assume that people will buy tickets to go to those games?  When I watch the games now, I’m amazed at how many empty seats there are.  Is there any reason to think that the seats will sell better for the expanded tournament?

3.  If the idea here is simply to have more tournament games, under the thinking that tournament games bring in money and more tournament games will bring in more money, then why not go to a double-elimination tournament?  The logistics would be somewhat difficult, but I don’t see why the NCAA couldn’t do away with conference tournaments, so the NCAA tournament starts a week earlier. That would allow for there to be a loser’s bracket without having the tournament last much longer into April than it already does.

Perhaps it sounds like a wild idea to move away from the single-elimination format, but, once you’re moving away from the current system simply to bring in more money, I think that a double-elimination tournament is no less crazy than expanding the field to 96.