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We’re about ten games into the NBA season so far.  It’s late enough to start perceiving some trends, and still early enough to make predictions.

If you haven’t been paying attention, here’s what’s been hoopening:  Miami, after all the hype, is 6-4.  The Hornets, who had no hype, are 8-1.  The Lakers, who still aren’t fully healthy, are 8-2.  The Clippers, who are mostly healthy, are, well, the Clippers.  The Knicks have shown signs of life, but then allowed Kevin Love to put up a 30-30 game.  No joke.  At least 30 points and at least 30 boards.  (A question for the NBA’s official statistician: does it only count as a 20-20 game, because it happened against the Knicks?)  And, after improving to 2-0 against the Heat this year, Paul Pierce tweeted an absolutely classic tweet.

We’re now deep enough into the season that it’s an appropriate time to start talking about predictions.  I begin my analysis by looking at individual players; specifically, stars.  For a team to make the playoffs, it obviously must have balance, depth, and role players.  No question.  But, in general, it also must have at least 1 star.

I don’t see more than 1 or 2 NBA teams making the playoffs that do not have an All-Star on their roster.  The only team to do it last year was Milwaukee, and they had a few guys who were borderline All-Stars.  This is no coincidence; when attempting to pick the playoff teams, I start by trying to pick the All-Stars.  Then I add 4 borderline All-Stars per conference, and that tells me which of the teams are worthy of going through the hoopservations state-of-the-art (ahem) data analyzer to predict playoff teams.

As a starting point, here were last year’s All-Star rosters:

EAST:

LeBron James

Kevin Garnett

Dwyane Wade

Allen Iverson (injured)

David Lee

Dwight Howard

Al Horford

Chris Bosh

Paul Pierce

Gerald Wallace

Joe Johnson

Rajon Rondo

Derrick Rose

WEST

Carmelo Anthony

Tim Duncan

Kobe Bryant (injured)

Jason Kidd

Steve Nash

Amar’e Stoudemire

Pau Gasol

Kevin Durant

Dirk Nowitzki

Zach Randolph

Chris Paul (injured)

Chauncey Billups

Brandon Roy (injured)

Chris Kaman

Deron Williams

Right off the bat, we know there will be a few changes, because Iverson isn’t in the league anymore (he was barely in the league when he made the team last year, but his name won’t be on the ballot this year so the chances of a repeat are low), David Lee went to the Western Conference, and Amar’e went to the East.

Here’s what I see for the East:

1. LeBron James

2. Dwyane Wade

3. Amar’e Stoudemire

4. Dwight Howard

5. Danny Granger

6. Paul Pierce

7. Gerald Wallace

8. Joe Johnson

9. Rajon Rondo

10. Derrick Rose

11. Joakim Noah

12. Andrew Bogut

Borderline:

Brook Lopez

Al Horford

Andre Iguodala

Anderson Varejao

And here’s what I see for the West:

1.  Carmelo Anthony

2.  Kobe Bryant

3. Steve Nash

4.  Blake Griffin

5.  Pau Gasol

6.  Kevin Durant

7.  Dirk Nowitzki

8.  Manu Ginobili

9.  Chris Paul

10.  Brandon Roy

11.  Deron Williams

12.  Russell Westbrook

Borderline

Stephen Curry

Zach Randolph

Tony Parker

David West

So, the teams we can eliminate from playoff consideration because they simply don’t have enough talent are: Detroit, Toronto, Washington, Sacramento, Minnesota, and Houston.  That probably doesn’t count as going out on a limb, so let me push the envelope a bit… at least 4 of those teams will win fewer than 30 games.

Soon, I’ll analyze each of the other teams and generate playoff predictions.

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This is the first in a four-part series of posts predicting playoff seedings for the upcoming year.  Of course, predictions usually get made before the season starts, and these predictions are being posted after all teams have already played a few games.  Why?  Because I don’t watch preseason games. It doesn’t tell me enough about the teams playing to be worth my time. (If someone wants to pay me to write this blog, I’ll be happy to watch preseason games.  Until then, I ain’t watchin’ no preseason game.)  I’m not saying that the first 3 or 4 games tell me much of anything about a team, but it can’t hurt to get at least some data about how a team is actually playing.

I begin my analysis by looking at individual players; specifically, stars.  For a team to make the playoffs, it obviously must have balance, depth, and role players.  No question.  But, in general, it also must have at least 1 star.

I don’t see more than 1 or 2 NBA teams making the playoffs that do not have an All-Star on their roster.  I understand that Utah, Chicago, and Philadelphia made the playoffs last year even though they had no All-Stars, but, as a general rule, I think teams need to have All-Stars to make the playoffs.   So, when attempting to pick the playoff teams, I think it makes sense to start by trying to pick the All-Stars.

A useful starting point is last year’s All-Star rosters:

EAST

Allen Iverson (Detroit)

Dwyane Wade (Miami)

LeBron James (Cleveland)

Kevin Garnett (Boston)

Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Joe Johnson (Atlanta)

Jameer Nelson (Orlando – injured)

Ray Allen (Boston)

Danny Granger (Indiana)

Paul Pierce (Boston)

Chris Bosh (Toronto)

Mo Williams (Cleveland)

Scot Pollard (Boston)

Just kidding.  Scot Pollard was not an All-Star.  I was just looking for an excuse to link to some pictures of Scot Pollard.  Like this one:
Scott Pollard

And this one:

And, oh, most certainly, this one:

Devin Harris (New Jersey)

WEST

Kobe Bryant (LA Lakers)

Chris Paul (New Orleans)

Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Yao Ming (Houston)

Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)

Shaquille O’Neal (Phoenix)

Brandon Roy (Portland)

Chauncey Billups (Denver)

Pau Gasol (LA Lakers)

David West (New Orleans)

Tony Parker (San Antonio)

I expect this year’s All-Star rosters to be very much the same as last year’s, with a few changes.  I see Derrick Rose making the All-Star team in the East, and probably Gilbert Arenas and Elton Brand, as well, assuming they are healthy.  If that’s right, the roster will be:

Derrick Rose (Chicago)

Dwyane Wade (Miami)

LeBron James (Cleveland)

Kevin Garnett (Boston)

Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Joe Johnson (Atlanta)

Gilbert Arenas (Washington)

Ray Allen (Boston)

Danny Granger (Indiana)

Paul Pierce (Boston)

Chris Bosh (Toronto)

Elton Brand (Philadelphia)

Next 3:  Devin Harris, Michael Redd, Hedo Turkoglu

Sleepers:  Raymond Felton, Jermaine O’Neal

The Western Conference All-Star team will also be very much the same as last year’s, with a few changes.  Shaq has moved to the East, and Yao is out.  I expect Carmelo Anthony to make the All-Star team, and expect Kevin to make a run at it (Blake Griffin, too, if he returns soon).  I also expect Derron Williams to make the team, and, if Tracy McGrady is healthy, he needs to be considered as well.  I will believe that McGrady is back to 100% when I see it, so I’m predicting this All-Star roster:

Kobe Bryant (LA Lakers)

Chris Paul (New Orleans)

Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)

LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland)

Kevin Durant (OK City)

Brandon Roy (Portland)

Carmelo Anthony (Denver)

Pau Gasol (LA Lakers)

David West (New Orleans)

Derron Williams (Utah)

Next 3:  Tony Parker, Al Jefferson, Chauncey Billups

Sleepers: Jeff Green, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby

Part 2 of my 4 part series predicting the playoff teams will be posted tomorrow.

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