Tag Archives: Philadelphia 76ers

Looking Back, Looking Forward

Filed Under: '09 - '10 Season, NBA, Season Predictions by KraverWP — Leave a comment
02/13/2010

Now that the All-Star game is over, it’s a good time to look back at the NBA season so far, and also ahead at what’s to come.

I’ve made a bunch of predictions on this site, and voiced multiple opinions, and now is as good a time as any to see whether the season is shaping up consistent with my predictions and opinions.

Starting with the Eastern Conference overall, I predicted the following playoff teams:
1. Orlando
2. Boston
3. Cleveland
4. Atlanta
5. Miami
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte
8. Washington

Just about everyone expected Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and Atlanta to be the top-4, and it looks like they will be. I don’t deserve any credit for getting that group right, nor do I think I deserve to be knocked for the fact they will apparently finish in a different order. If the playoffs ended right now, the only one of the teams I picked to be in that would not be in is Washington. I’ll give myself a pass on that one because of everything that has happened in Washington, but I seem to have underestimated the Raptors, who, at 29-23, are currently the #5 team in the East.

Out West, I predicted the following:
1. Lakers
2. Nuggets
3. Spurs
4. Mavericks
5. Trailblazers
6. Hornets
7. Suns
8. OKC

I’ll give myself a pass for picking the Hornets (who, if the season ended today, would not be in), because my pick was motivated by the man-crush I have on Chris Paul, and he has been injured for a significant part of the season. I’ll give myself credit for picking the Suns and Thunder, both of whom were not in the playoffs last year, and would be in if the season ended today. And I’ll beat myself up for sleeping on the Jazz, who, at the moment, are the #3 seed.

Looking at some of my opinions more specifically, I was a big supporter of the Sixers’ decision to sign Allen Iverson. Before Iverson’s first game, Philly was 5-15. Right now, they are 20-32, which means that they’ve been 15-17 since the signing. Where I come from, that’s called an improvement. Granted, Iverson has missed a bunch of games since he came back, so it wouldn’t be fair to say that he turned the team around. But, it also wouldn’t be fair to say that the Sixers made a mistake by signing him. I’ll give myself credit for that opinion. (It’s fun to grade yourself, by the way… you can give yourself credit for just about anything, as long as you can come up with some justification that makes sense to yourself.)

Another opinion that has, so far, stood the test of time, was the opinion I expressed, on November 29th, that people were getting a bit too carried away about Brandon Jennings. At that time, the Bucks had a winning record, Jennings had recently put up a 55-point game, and people were in a tizzy about this rookie who dropped in the draft. I said that people were getting carried away. Right now, the Bucks no longer have a winning record, so I’ll give myself credit for that opinion, as well.

Then there’s the ranting I did about the Jazz. On January 28, I asked who on the Jazz was overrated: Williams, Boozer, or Sloan. I said that one of them had to be, because each was highly regarded, and, yet, the Jazz were nothing special.

Well… Ummm… Huh.

The Jazz, if the season ended today, would be the #3 seed out West. They’re 9-1 in their last 10 games. I think it’s safe to say that I was wrong about that one.

Yeah.

In fact, that one leaves me with so much egg on my face that it almost wipes out any credibility I developed otherwise.

So… now that my predictions seem to be right only slightly more often than they are wrong, it seems that I’m not particularly good at making predictions. Therefore, of course, I’ll make some more predictions:

Cleveland, currently the #1 seed in the East, will not be in the Finals. (NOTE: They might make a major trade, which could obviously change things.) When they are not, the conventional wisdom will be that LeBron has no teammates who know how to play the game, even though those teammates are all good enough to contribute to a 43-11 team.

Utah, currently the #3 seed out West, will finish lower than #3.

San Antonio, currently the #5 seed out West, will win at least one playoff series.

The Nets will win at least 9 games, but only barely.

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Last Word About THE ANSWER

Filed Under: GM Consultant, NBA by KraverWP — Leave a comment
12/03/2009

I’ve already had much to say about The Answer, and want to move onto other topics soon. After all, he is a 34-year-old who is unlikely to have an impact on the championship race.

But, now that he’s signed, it’s worth reflecting on what the process we just witnessed tells us about the NBA. As I see it, it illustrates two things that I believe to be true about the league: (1) that lots of players get overrated, and (2) too many teams are overly cautious about their personnel moves.

Regarding the first point, it was almost surreal to watch basketball commentators debate the merits of signing him. This discussion was particularly crazy. ESPN’s “panel of experts” debated six questions about the Iverson signing. One of those questions was whether Iverson should start, and, if he should start now, “what about when Lou Williams returns?”

Forgive my ignorance, but who the hell is Lou Williams? Apparently, he was a second round pick in 2005. Last year, his fourth season in the league, he averaged 12.8 points and 3 assists. That’s mediocre at best. Yet, at least some “experts” think that this guy is worth starting over AI. Most teams in the league thought that they had no spot in their starting lineups for AI, which leads to point number 2: Too many teams are overly cautious about their personnel moves.

At any moment, there are approximately 6 – 10 teams that have a legitimate chance to contend immediately. Right now, the list includes Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, the Lakers, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, and San Antonio. For the sake of argument, let’s expand it to include Miami and Portland. That’s 11 teams.

And, at any moment, there are approximately 4-6 teams that have a legitimate reason to think that they’re going to become contenders within the next 2 or 3 years, either because they have great young talent or because they expect to have lots of salary cap space soon. Right now, the teams with multiple exciting young players include Chicago, Oklahoma City, and the Clippers. As I already blogged, I’m not sold on Brandon Jennings, but for now let’s assume that he’s the Second Coming, and include Milwaukee on the list. Even though I have trouble thinking of the Knicks or the Nets as teams that should be excited about their futures, let’s include them on the list because of the money they will have to spend on free agents. That’s 6 teams.

Between those two lists, 17 teams are covered. There are 30 teams in the league, meaning that 13 of them are not on either list. With the exception of Philly, those teams all chose to stay the course rather than role the dice on a guy like THE ANSWER.

Granted, there is reason to worry about the influence that Iverson has on a team, and reason to question whether he’ll “get with the program.” I get it. I think we can all agree that he has had a Hall of Fame caliber career, and that he can sometimes be a disruptive force on a team. I acknowledge this. But, I think we can also agree that there are plenty of guys in the league who can be a disruptive force on a team, and that teams are generally willing to sign them if the potential positives are likely to outweigh the potential negatives. Maybe it’s a close call, but to think that nearly all of the teams in the league decided they’re better off without him strikes me as ridiculous.

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