Category Archives: ’09 – ’10 Season

As I blogged recently, ain’t much changin’ in the NBA playoffs on a year-to-year basis.  The minimal amount of movement of teams into or out of the playoffs is remarkable, and (I failed to point this out in my previous posting) becomes even more remarkable when one considers that injuries to guys like Yao and T-Mac for the Rockets, CP3 for the Hornets, and D-Wade for the Heat, have a lot to do with the movement that we actually have seen.

One hoopservation about the minimal movement of teams into and out of the playoffs is that, given how little movement occurs, it can’t be a coincidence that, when movement does occur, it often involves a playoff team losing its PG and then falling out of the playoffs.

The clearest example is Detroit.  The Pistons were the #2 seed in the East as recently as the 2007-08 season.  Then they traded Chauncey Billups, and now they are an afterthought.  I know that lots of terrible executive decisions have been made in Detroit over the last two years — for example, the decisions leading the auto industry to the verge of collapse — but the decision to trade Chauncey Billups for no perceivable reason has to rank amongst the worst.  The Pistons need a bailout of their own if they’re going to make it back to the playoffs.

Detroit is the clearest example, but not the only example.  This year’s 76ers are 27-54, and do not even resemble a playoff team.  Last year, they were a playoff team.  Then they got rid of Andre Miller, and completely lost their mojo.

Not too long ago, the Wizards were a young, exciting playoff team.  Then Gilbert Arenas injured his knee.  Then Gilbert Arenas injured his brain.  Now, the Wizards are a joke.

In ’06-’07, the Warriors not only made the playoffs, but won a series, led by Barron Davis.  Now Barron’s gone from Golden State, and the Warriors are gone from the playoffs.

Lastly, the Nets — yes, the Nets — were a playoff team in ’06-’07.  They traded Jason Kidd in the middle of the following season and, well… you know what happened.

In sum, one pattern we can perceive when we look over the minimal movement that has happened into and out of the playoffs is that often a team in the playoffs screws things up when it gets rid of its PG.

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The NBA Playoffs are almost upon us, marking the beginning of the end of my first season as a BasketBlogger.  It’s a time for reflection, a time to take stock of lessons learned.

Aside from the obvious lesson — that I shouldn’t quit my day job — the main thing I’ve learned is that this game, while completely unpredictable on the college level, is actually very predictable on the pro level.  It’s remarkable how little the standings change on a year-to-year basis.

Check out the current standings here, and the standings for the ends of each of the past three seasons here, here, and here.  You generally see some movement in the rankings of the playoff teams, but the teams that go to the playoffs hardly change.  In fact, seven teams have been to the playoffs each of the past four years (Cleveland, Orlando, Lakers, Dallas, Denver, Utah, and San Antonio).  Six teams have not been to the playoffs in any of the past four years (Indiana, New York, Memphis, Clippers, Minnesota, and Sacramento).  So, in a league with 30 teams, where 16 teams make the playoffs every year, 13 of those teams have not missed the playoffs in four years, and 13 of those teams have not made the playoffs in four years.

Maybe I’m just a dork with nothing better to do than think deep thoughts about basketball statistics, but I think that’s quite interesting.  The system is not set up for that kind of year-to-year consistency; bad teams are rewarded with good draft picks, and free agents are able to leave to go to whatever team they want when their contracts are up (theoretically, the bad teams are the ones that can offer good money and lots of playing time).  Other sports do not have type of consistency; in the NFL, it’s quite common for Super Bowl teams – even defending champions – to miss the playoffs the following season.   Aside from the Colts, Patriots, and Chargers, there’s essentially a revolving door into and out of the NFL playoffs on a year-by-year basis.

This year-to-year stability leads to a number of hoopservations, which I’ll discuss over the next few days.  I hope you’ll check back regularly, and jump into the discussion.

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