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Why I Don’t Like Fantasy Hoops

So, this week is the week of the semi-finals in both of my fantasy football leagues. No, my team did not make the semis in either league. Thanks for asking, though. I really appreciate it.

The point of this football reference is simply to say that I’m going to miss fantasy sports until September. I often think about scratching my itch for fantasy sports by joining a fantasy basketball league. But, I did that once, and didn’t like it.

The problem with fantasy hoops is that, due to the nature of the game, mediocre guys on sh**y teams put up great numbers. On paper, mediocre guys look a lot like stars, simply because by being on the court for extended minutes on a lousy team, they compile a bunch of stats. It’s because in basketball, losing teams generally put up 85 points, knock down a few 3‘s, and pull down about 35 rebounds. That means that a few of the scrubs that those teams dressed up in a uniform that night compiled some stats. In other words, players who don’t do anything that actually makes their team competitive wind up making their fantasy owners quite happy.

Other sports are different. In baseball, guys who just show up at the park and get some playing time don’t help their fantasy owners. But, a guy who goes 2-4 with a HR makes his real team – not just his fantasy team – more likely to win the game. In football, guys who just go through the motions don’t help their fantasy owners. But, a guy who runs for 80 yards and scores a TD makes his real team – not just his fantasy team – more likely to win the game.

An illustration of how basketball is different is the game Larry Hughes had on November 6th against Cleveland. As I already blogged about, the Knicks were never in the game. But, Hughes had a few rebounds fall into his lap, picked off a few errant passes when the Cavs were playing sloppy, and knocked down a 3 when the Cavs were too busy looking at all the celebrities in the stands. The Knicks were not competitive from the beginning of the game until the last 3 minutes, but guy I was sitting next to had Hughes on his fantasy team, and was loving what he was seeing. When the final buzzer sounded, Hughes had put up 18 points, hit a 3, pulled down 5 boards, had 4 assists, and 4 steals. On paper, those are good numbers. That’s not because Larry Hughes is good, though. It’s because he got lots of minutes on a bad team.

The other reason I don’t like fantasy hoops is that the thing which distinguishes basketball players from each other is not measured by stats. It’s an attitude. It’s the ability to come through in the fourth quarter. Other sports are generally different. Sure, football and baseball have “clutch” players, and also guys who tend to disappear in the clutch. But, if you’re comparing Larry Fitzgerald to Andre Johnson, you aren’t saying “Larry has ice running through his veins in the last two minutes of a tie game.” Yet, if you’re trying to explain what makes Kobe / Wade / LeBron extraordinary, it’s their ability to put their teams on their shoulders for the last 5 minutes of a tie game, and bring it home.

The only other comparison that comes even close is a football quarterback. Tom Brady ain’t Tom Brady because of stats. (Trust me, I had him on my fantasy team this year.) He’s Tom Brady because you want to be on his team in the fourth quarter of a close game.

This post is already quite long. Usually when I talk for this long, people have either fallen asleep or walked out of the room. So I’ll wrap up. I don’t like fantasy hoops, because too many mediocre players look like stars in fantasy hoops.

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Who’s Better?

Consider two stat lines for two players who were each in their sixth season at the time (each of them played 81 games):

MPG FG% 3p% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
37.7 .489 .344 .780 7.6 7.2 1.7 1.2 28.4

38.3 .514 .000 .745 11.2 3.0 .99 3.2 26.6

We’ll call the guy on top “F” because he’s a forward, and the guy on the bottom “C” because he’s a center. (The formatting might get screwed up in translation. F averages 37.7 minutes, shoots 48.9% from the field 34.4% from 3, 78% at the line, grabs 7.6 rebounds per game, dishes 7.2 assists per game, gets 1.7 steals per game, blocks 1.2 shots per game, and scores 28.4 points per game. C averages 38.3 minutes, shoots 51.4% from the field, didn’t make a 3, shoots 74.5% at the line, grabs 11.2 rebounds per game, dishes 3.0 assists per game, gets .99 steals per game, blocks 3.2 shots per game, and scores 26.6 points per game.)

If I asked who was better, you’d probably say it’s a close call, right? You might note that F brings more to the table, because he shoots 3’s, obviously passes well, is a thief on defense, and rebounds quite well. But, you’d also probably note that C is an extremely rare player: a center who obviously dominates the paint (11 rebounds, 3 blocks per game), and scores 26.6 points per game while shooting over 50%. On the numbers alone, it’s a very tough call. You couldn’t call me crazy if I said that I’d take C over F, if only because it’s harder to find a dominant center than it is to find anything else.

If I told you that F had already led his team to the NBA Finals by the end of his sixth year, and that the furthest C had led his team was to the Conference Semifinals, you’d say that F had probably proven himself to be a better player.

But, if I told you that C, by the end of his sixth year, had never had a teammate who made the All-Star team, and that F, by the end of his sixth year, already had two teammates who made the All-Star team, you might take that back. You couldn’t call me crazy if I said that I’d still take C over F, even knowing that F had already led his team to the NBA Finals.

If I then told you that Bill Simmons took the time to rank the 96 best players of all time, and ranked C number 39 and F number 20, you couldn’t call me crazy if I said that I disagree with Simmons. If I told you that Simmons said of C that his “career was either ‘frustrating’ (the glass-half-full take) or ‘phenomenally disappointing’ (the glass-half-empty take),” and said of F that “he’s a cross between ABA Doc (unstoppable in the open court, breathtaking in traffic, can galvanize teammates and crowds with one ‘wow’ play, handles himself gracefully on and off the court) and 1992 Scottie Pippen (the freaky athletic ability on both ends, especially when he’s cutting pass lines or flying in from the weak side for a block), with a little MJ (his overcompetitiveness and ‘there’s no way we’re losing this game’ gear), Magic (the unselfishness, which isn’t where I thought it would be back in 2003, but at least it’s there a little) and Bo (how he occasionally overpowers opponents in ways that doesn’t seem fully human) mixed in . . . only if that Molotove NBA superstar cocktail was mixed together in Karl Malone’s 275-pound body. This is crazy. This is insane. This is unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” you couldn’t call me crazy if I said that Bill Simmons got carried away. If I told you that I’d still take C over F in spite of Bill’s swooning, you still wouldn’t call me crazy.

But, if I told you that C was Patrick Ewing and F was LeBron James, you’d probably call me crazy if I said I’d take C over F.

Why?

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