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Looking Back, Looking Forward

Filed Under: '09 - '10 Season, NBA, Season Predictions by KraverWP — Leave a comment
02/13/2010

Now that the All-Star game is over, it’s a good time to look back at the NBA season so far, and also ahead at what’s to come.

I’ve made a bunch of predictions on this site, and voiced multiple opinions, and now is as good a time as any to see whether the season is shaping up consistent with my predictions and opinions.

Starting with the Eastern Conference overall, I predicted the following playoff teams:
1. Orlando
2. Boston
3. Cleveland
4. Atlanta
5. Miami
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte
8. Washington

Just about everyone expected Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and Atlanta to be the top-4, and it looks like they will be. I don’t deserve any credit for getting that group right, nor do I think I deserve to be knocked for the fact they will apparently finish in a different order. If the playoffs ended right now, the only one of the teams I picked to be in that would not be in is Washington. I’ll give myself a pass on that one because of everything that has happened in Washington, but I seem to have underestimated the Raptors, who, at 29-23, are currently the #5 team in the East.

Out West, I predicted the following:
1. Lakers
2. Nuggets
3. Spurs
4. Mavericks
5. Trailblazers
6. Hornets
7. Suns
8. OKC

I’ll give myself a pass for picking the Hornets (who, if the season ended today, would not be in), because my pick was motivated by the man-crush I have on Chris Paul, and he has been injured for a significant part of the season. I’ll give myself credit for picking the Suns and Thunder, both of whom were not in the playoffs last year, and would be in if the season ended today. And I’ll beat myself up for sleeping on the Jazz, who, at the moment, are the #3 seed.

Looking at some of my opinions more specifically, I was a big supporter of the Sixers’ decision to sign Allen Iverson. Before Iverson’s first game, Philly was 5-15. Right now, they are 20-32, which means that they’ve been 15-17 since the signing. Where I come from, that’s called an improvement. Granted, Iverson has missed a bunch of games since he came back, so it wouldn’t be fair to say that he turned the team around. But, it also wouldn’t be fair to say that the Sixers made a mistake by signing him. I’ll give myself credit for that opinion. (It’s fun to grade yourself, by the way… you can give yourself credit for just about anything, as long as you can come up with some justification that makes sense to yourself.)

Another opinion that has, so far, stood the test of time, was the opinion I expressed, on November 29th, that people were getting a bit too carried away about Brandon Jennings. At that time, the Bucks had a winning record, Jennings had recently put up a 55-point game, and people were in a tizzy about this rookie who dropped in the draft. I said that people were getting carried away. Right now, the Bucks no longer have a winning record, so I’ll give myself credit for that opinion, as well.

Then there’s the ranting I did about the Jazz. On January 28, I asked who on the Jazz was overrated: Williams, Boozer, or Sloan. I said that one of them had to be, because each was highly regarded, and, yet, the Jazz were nothing special.

Well… Ummm… Huh.

The Jazz, if the season ended today, would be the #3 seed out West. They’re 9-1 in their last 10 games. I think it’s safe to say that I was wrong about that one.

Yeah.

In fact, that one leaves me with so much egg on my face that it almost wipes out any credibility I developed otherwise.

So… now that my predictions seem to be right only slightly more often than they are wrong, it seems that I’m not particularly good at making predictions. Therefore, of course, I’ll make some more predictions:

Cleveland, currently the #1 seed in the East, will not be in the Finals. (NOTE: They might make a major trade, which could obviously change things.) When they are not, the conventional wisdom will be that LeBron has no teammates who know how to play the game, even though those teammates are all good enough to contribute to a 43-11 team.

Utah, currently the #3 seed out West, will finish lower than #3.

San Antonio, currently the #5 seed out West, will win at least one playoff series.

The Nets will win at least 9 games, but only barely.

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A Word About Lottery Picks

Filed Under: GM Consultant, NBA by KraverWP — Leave a comment
02/13/2010

There were a few terrible games in the NBA this week. One was the Knicks-Kings. I caught a few minutes of that game towards the end of regulation, and I heard the announcer utter the sentence “Wilson Chandler needs to have the ball in his hands here.” I wondered whether that sentence had ever been uttered during an NBA game before, and realized that it probably had not been.

Then, on Wednesday, the Bucks – on the road – pounded the Nets by 20, to “improve” to 24-27. I wondered whether any team had ever improved to 24-27 by pounding its opponent by 20, and shocking absolutely nobody by doing so. I realized that no team probably ever had.

Then I wondered whether these games tell us anything about the NBA as a whole, and I realized that, as good as the NBA is near the top (I think the talent in the league is as good as I’ve ever seen it, and I’m quite impressed by multiple teams), the NBA is also quite weak at the bottom.

Then I watched part of the Rookie – Sophomore game, and listened to the announcers talk about the guys on the court having very bright futures. I wondered whether that was actually true, and realized that the announcers of the Rookie – Sophomore game essentially say the same thing every year.

Then I wondered whether I have anything worth blogging about that relates to any of these observations, and realized that, if I don’t get to it quick, my readers will feel like they just wasted their time reading 4 rambling paragraphs that make no coherent point.

So, I’ll attempt to make a coherent point. Here goes:

There are a couple of bad teams in the league, and there has to be something to learn from them. Somewhat remarkably, with a few exceptions, the teams that are bad have been bad for a while. The Knicks have been bad since Ewing left; the Kings have been bad since the Webber / Divac / Bibby group disbanded; the Nets have been bad since Jason Kidd left; the Warriors, with the exception of that exciting team led by Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson, have been bad since RUN TMC; and the Clippers have been bad since, well, since they’ve been the Clippers.

I say that it’s somewhat remarkable for bad teams to stay bad for a while, because the system is designed for that not to happen. The system is designed for the bad teams to become better, by giving them the highest draft picks. Sometimes, teams can turn around their fortunes with one pick (e.g. Cleveland drafting James, Denver drafting Anthony, and Miami drafting Wade). But many teams never seem to turn around their fortunes.

The easy explanation is just to say that the Clippers, Knicks, Bucks, etc. simply don’t know what they’re doing. And, to some extent, that’s a good explanation. But I think that’s only part of it. I think that part of the problem is that bad teams don’t respect the value of a top-5 pick enough.

Here’s what I mean: No team should ever plan to have multiple-top-5 picks within a few years. You have to be terrible for a while to have multiple-top-5 picks within a few years. And you don’t want to be terrible for a while.

Thus, if you have a top-5 pick, you need to treat it like it’s gold. If you think there’s a guy who can turn your franchise around, use it to take him, and then build a team around him. But, if you don’t think there’s a guy who can turn your franchise around, trade the pick. Get a veteran. Or more picks. Or a future pick. Whatever you do, don’t spend a top-5 pick on a guy who can’t turn your franchise around.

It seems simple enough, yet it’s very rare for top-5 picks to get traded. It’s much more common for top-5 picks to get used on talented guys who look good in the Rookie-Sophomore game, but never wind up turning the fortunes of their franchises around — which might explain why the fortunes of so many franchises never seem to turn around.

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