Tag Archives: Dwyane Wade

Why I Don’t Like Fantasy Hoops

So, this week is the week of the semi-finals in both of my fantasy football leagues. No, my team did not make the semis in either league. Thanks for asking, though. I really appreciate it.

The point of this football reference is simply to say that I’m going to miss fantasy sports until September. I often think about scratching my itch for fantasy sports by joining a fantasy basketball league. But, I did that once, and didn’t like it.

The problem with fantasy hoops is that, due to the nature of the game, mediocre guys on sh**y teams put up great numbers. On paper, mediocre guys look a lot like stars, simply because by being on the court for extended minutes on a lousy team, they compile a bunch of stats. It’s because in basketball, losing teams generally put up 85 points, knock down a few 3‘s, and pull down about 35 rebounds. That means that a few of the scrubs that those teams dressed up in a uniform that night compiled some stats. In other words, players who don’t do anything that actually makes their team competitive wind up making their fantasy owners quite happy.

Other sports are different. In baseball, guys who just show up at the park and get some playing time don’t help their fantasy owners. But, a guy who goes 2-4 with a HR makes his real team – not just his fantasy team – more likely to win the game. In football, guys who just go through the motions don’t help their fantasy owners. But, a guy who runs for 80 yards and scores a TD makes his real team – not just his fantasy team – more likely to win the game.

An illustration of how basketball is different is the game Larry Hughes had on November 6th against Cleveland. As I already blogged about, the Knicks were never in the game. But, Hughes had a few rebounds fall into his lap, picked off a few errant passes when the Cavs were playing sloppy, and knocked down a 3 when the Cavs were too busy looking at all the celebrities in the stands. The Knicks were not competitive from the beginning of the game until the last 3 minutes, but guy I was sitting next to had Hughes on his fantasy team, and was loving what he was seeing. When the final buzzer sounded, Hughes had put up 18 points, hit a 3, pulled down 5 boards, had 4 assists, and 4 steals. On paper, those are good numbers. That’s not because Larry Hughes is good, though. It’s because he got lots of minutes on a bad team.

The other reason I don’t like fantasy hoops is that the thing which distinguishes basketball players from each other is not measured by stats. It’s an attitude. It’s the ability to come through in the fourth quarter. Other sports are generally different. Sure, football and baseball have “clutch” players, and also guys who tend to disappear in the clutch. But, if you’re comparing Larry Fitzgerald to Andre Johnson, you aren’t saying “Larry has ice running through his veins in the last two minutes of a tie game.” Yet, if you’re trying to explain what makes Kobe / Wade / LeBron extraordinary, it’s their ability to put their teams on their shoulders for the last 5 minutes of a tie game, and bring it home.

The only other comparison that comes even close is a football quarterback. Tom Brady ain’t Tom Brady because of stats. (Trust me, I had him on my fantasy team this year.) He’s Tom Brady because you want to be on his team in the fourth quarter of a close game.

This post is already quite long. Usually when I talk for this long, people have either fallen asleep or walked out of the room. So I’ll wrap up. I don’t like fantasy hoops, because too many mediocre players look like stars in fantasy hoops.

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As noted in previous postings, I believe that conversations comparing players to each other are often too limited; we often talk about championships a player has won and the quality of that player’s supporting cast without going any further.

There are a few other facts that are too frequently overlooked:
Team record. A player who is a star will regularly get his team to the playoffs once he gets his professional legs under him. Real stars can join a terrible team and make it a perennial playoff team. In 2002-03, the Nuggets were 17-65. Then they got Carmelo Anthony. They have won at least 43 games every season since. In ’02-03, the Cavs were also 17-65. Then they got LeBron. They won 35 games during his rookie year, and at least 42 games ever since. In ’07-08, when Dwyane Wade spent much of the season injured, the Heat were 15-67. With Wade healthy last year, they won 43 games.

The point is that stars play on winning teams. If your team is 30-52 during a year when you were generally healthy, you ain’t a star.

This year will tell us a lot about whether some of the league’s premier players deserve to be classified as “stars,” or are merely above average: Hedo Turkoglu, Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Kevin Durant, Elton Brand, Barron Davis, Danny Granger, and Stephen Jackson.

Playoff series wins. Often, people talk about championships, but ignore victories in other playoff series like they don’t mean anything. Why? If you can take a miserable team, like, say, the Knicks of ’85, and make them a contender, haven’t you accomplished something?
That’s what Patrick Ewing did, and, yet, numerous people think of Ewing as a failure because he never won a championship. To me, a guy who regularly leads his team out of the first round is a superstar. Whether or not he’s able to take them further often says more about his supporting cast than it does about him. (To be clear, I’m arguing that a weak supporting cast is rarely a reason for a star to fail to lead his team to the playoffs, but may be a reason for a superstar to fail to lead his team to a championship.)

Statistics. If your team is regularly losing in the first round of the playoffs, you might be a superstar, but rarely. To meet that description, your numbers must be gaudy. It’s hard to say what the threshold is, but your average per game totals of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks should be above 40. (As a point of reference, Wade’s per game averages last year were 30 points, 7.5 assists, 5 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks — for a “total” of 46.)
In today’s game, I think the only superstars are Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Anthony, and, possibly, Howard, Nowitzki, and Paul. (Historically, Duncan was, but I don’t think he will continue to be going forward).

Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll regularly compare players to each other, whether in the context of discussing All-Star selections, award winners, or free agents. I hope we’ll use some of these metrics, so we can compare two players without simply talking about the quality of their teammates.

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