Category Archives: ’09 – ’10 Season

Now that the All-Star game is over, it’s a good time to look back at the NBA season so far, and also ahead at what’s to come.

I’ve made a bunch of predictions on this site, and voiced multiple opinions, and now is as good a time as any to see whether the season is shaping up consistent with my predictions and opinions.

Starting with the Eastern Conference overall, I predicted the following playoff teams:
1. Orlando
2. Boston
3. Cleveland
4. Atlanta
5. Miami
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte
8. Washington

Just about everyone expected Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and Atlanta to be the top-4, and it looks like they will be. I don’t deserve any credit for getting that group right, nor do I think I deserve to be knocked for the fact they will apparently finish in a different order. If the playoffs ended right now, the only one of the teams I picked to be in that would not be in is Washington. I’ll give myself a pass on that one because of everything that has happened in Washington, but I seem to have underestimated the Raptors, who, at 29-23, are currently the #5 team in the East.

Out West, I predicted the following:
1. Lakers
2. Nuggets
3. Spurs
4. Mavericks
5. Trailblazers
6. Hornets
7. Suns
8. OKC

I’ll give myself a pass for picking the Hornets (who, if the season ended today, would not be in), because my pick was motivated by the man-crush I have on Chris Paul, and he has been injured for a significant part of the season. I’ll give myself credit for picking the Suns and Thunder, both of whom were not in the playoffs last year, and would be in if the season ended today. And I’ll beat myself up for sleeping on the Jazz, who, at the moment, are the #3 seed.

Looking at some of my opinions more specifically, I was a big supporter of the Sixers’ decision to sign Allen Iverson. Before Iverson’s first game, Philly was 5-15. Right now, they are 20-32, which means that they’ve been 15-17 since the signing. Where I come from, that’s called an improvement. Granted, Iverson has missed a bunch of games since he came back, so it wouldn’t be fair to say that he turned the team around. But, it also wouldn’t be fair to say that the Sixers made a mistake by signing him. I’ll give myself credit for that opinion. (It’s fun to grade yourself, by the way… you can give yourself credit for just about anything, as long as you can come up with some justification that makes sense to yourself.)

Another opinion that has, so far, stood the test of time, was the opinion I expressed, on November 29th, that people were getting a bit too carried away about Brandon Jennings. At that time, the Bucks had a winning record, Jennings had recently put up a 55-point game, and people were in a tizzy about this rookie who dropped in the draft. I said that people were getting carried away. Right now, the Bucks no longer have a winning record, so I’ll give myself credit for that opinion, as well.

Then there’s the ranting I did about the Jazz. On January 28, I asked who on the Jazz was overrated: Williams, Boozer, or Sloan. I said that one of them had to be, because each was highly regarded, and, yet, the Jazz were nothing special.

Well… Ummm… Huh.

The Jazz, if the season ended today, would be the #3 seed out West. They’re 9-1 in their last 10 games. I think it’s safe to say that I was wrong about that one.

Yeah.

In fact, that one leaves me with so much egg on my face that it almost wipes out any credibility I developed otherwise.

So… now that my predictions seem to be right only slightly more often than they are wrong, it seems that I’m not particularly good at making predictions. Therefore, of course, I’ll make some more predictions:

Cleveland, currently the #1 seed in the East, will not be in the Finals. (NOTE: They might make a major trade, which could obviously change things.) When they are not, the conventional wisdom will be that LeBron has no teammates who know how to play the game, even though those teammates are all good enough to contribute to a 43-11 team.

Utah, currently the #3 seed out West, will finish lower than #3.

San Antonio, currently the #5 seed out West, will win at least one playoff series.

The Nets will win at least 9 games, but only barely.

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Random Thoughts

I had the good fortune to attend two live NBA games in the last 8 days. The first was the Knicks-T’Wolves game on January 26th. Remarkably, the Knicks – who were 17-26 the moment the ball tipped – completely squashed the Wolves. The Knicks jumped out to a 15-0 lead, and were up by 28 at one point in the first quarter. Yes, the first quarter. The only reasonable conclusion to draw was that the Wolves had to be one of the worst teams in league history to get pounded so badly by a 17-26 team. Then, 5 days later, the ‘Wolves pounded the Knicks by 21. Thus, the Knicks are bad enough to get pounded by a team that was humiliated by a 17-26 team only a few days before.

I’m not sure what conclusion to draw. Perhaps the teams are inconsistent. Perhaps they are just both bad basketball teams, each capable of being absolutely horrific on any given night. Or perhaps they are both very good at home. Um, no. That’s not it. It must be something else.

On a different note, I was at the Celtics-Lakers game on Sunday. What a joy to watch. The teams were good, and, no less importantly, it actually felt like a basketball game. They didn’t have ridiculous entertainment during each timeout, like the Knicks and the Heat have (as I’ve blogged before). During timeouts, they played music to get the crowd going, and showed pictures of fans cheering for the home team on the JumboTron. Good for the Celtics.

Separately, I was hoopserving the All-Star rosters today, and noticed something. If you believe that a player is usually in his prime between the ages of 29 and 31, then the ages of the guys on these rosters are almost the exact opposite of what you would expect them to be. Check it out: of the 24 All-Stars, 7 were born before 1/1/79, which means that they are at least 31 years old. 14 of them were born after 1/1/82, which means that they are not yet 28 years old (for purposes of simplicity, I’m pretending today is January 1st instead of February 3rd).

A digression for a second… two of the All-Stars, Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant, were born in 1988. Yup. Nineteen-friggin’-eighty-eight. I was already getting rejected by girls in 1988; these guys weren’t even crawling yet. Sigh.

Digression over… Only 3 of the 24 All-Stars were born in 1979, 1980, or 1981, even though the guys born in those years are the guys one would expect to be in their primes right now. So, there are 7 guys over 31, 14 guys under 29, and only 3 guys who are 29, 30, or 31.

I, for one, have no idea why this is. Was there some rule change in AAU basketball that impacted the guys from ’79, ’80, and ’81? Did something happen in the NCAA around the time those guys were in college? Is there any reasonable explanation for why this would be the case?

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